No trends to speak of on the models, they are all over the place and shifted way too much between runs to be comfortable with anything. Another system that is basically "Until it develops" ignore anything beyond 4 days out on the models and wait to see if the trends iron out.
Right now I'd suspect that this system has a very slightly bit higher odds to miss the US just to the east with a potential cutoff low eroding the ridge, but would bring some impacts to the Bahamas/Caribbean. But confidence is pretty low, check back in a week if you are interested in that. The setup is likely to cause rough surf and some erosion along the east coast of Florida, though.
The biggest difference between this and what eventually became Hermine is that this wave is further south, and likely more influenced by equatorial Kelvin waves. How far north and when it gets early on will likely impact the odds of recurve, which I thing will go down if it does stay further south.
The Windwards may get a TS out of it around Wednesday, and also Venezuela and the southern Caribbean islands near south America, as well as Jamaica needs to watch it closely.
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