While the quick development and sharp hook to the right and out to sea makes it look like the models have a solid handle on 97L, there are actually several variables at play which could put the proverbial fly in the ointment at any time. As mentioned above, one of these is the potential for shear to be considerably stronger than an incipient or even fully developed tropical cyclone can deal with. Another, as can be seen in the image below, 97L is a large wave, and as such, slow to organize. In fact, a new wave "Pouch" has formed recently (P43L), leaving P39L way back in its wake. Additionally, there appear to be three vorticity lobes more or less surrounding the Pouch, but not necessarily rotating around the pouch, which suggests a level of independence that could further complicate consolidation.
Several runs of the HWRF as well as the Canadian have broken 97L into two or three tropical lows, usually with a primary getting very strong, and the others nearby, or lagging behind. This would not be impossible, but more often something (still infrequently) seen in the West Pac, from one of those truly massive tropical trofs or gyres out there. 97L is big, but not quite that big. So maybe less plausible than it would seem given several model runs advertising this outcome, but not to be written off - maybe two tropical lows, or a TC and a half would seem a more plausible scenario with this one. TBD ... still developing.
The take-away really being that while having near certain development odds, just a lot of known unknowns yet to be worked out.
Forum Permissions
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Rating:
Thread views: 191034
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center
Previous
Index
Next
Flat
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE
Edit
Reply
Quote
