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Archives >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE
      Tue Sep 27 2016 05:03 AM

Still not developed, so take model runs with a bit of salt past about 4 days, but, here are the main oeprational ones:

GFS, Tropical Storm of Depression over the central Lesser Antilles by Wednesday afternoon, moves west into the Central Bahamas, becomes a hurricane before starting to turn north Saturday, then slams into Hati Sunday evening and weakens, over Turks and Caicos on Monday, then generally east of the US, possibly effects on Newfoundland in Canada. the Friday after it. This model si a bit suspect with the sharp north turn, but this is not impossible, the ensemble mean is a very more spread out, which indicates low confidence beyond 4 days or so.

Euro: Over the central lesser Antilles on Wednesday, Tropical Depression or Storm, by Friday, north of the southern Caribbean islands, but possibly a hurricane. Takes a bit of a southwesterly dive on Saturday, moves west on Sunday, avoids impacts with South America, stronger, Monday, slower, but moving north nnw, Tuesday, hits Jamaica from the south as a major hurricane, landfalls on Cuba Wednesday, then rides along it fairly slowly to the west northwest, and by the end of the run on late Thursday night it is just inshore over Cuba due south of West Palm Beach. Ensemble spread winds up this far out ranges from the Yucatan to the Eastern Bahamas, so a good deal of uncertainty past this Friday.

Birefly, CMC has it crossing Jamaica, eastern Cuba, central Bahamas, and then winds up over the outer banks on Wed, Oct 5th. Navgem, has it close enough to Florida as a hurricane to cause some issues, by the end ot the run. HWRF is very slow and still has it in the Central Caribbean (South of Haiti) by the end of its run on Sunday, but also as a strong Hurricane.

In short, without a developed system it is really too soon to tell beyond 4 days based on the ensemble spread, but the trend has been a bit west, enough to call odds about 50/50 for direct US impact right now. Land impacts would weaken the system, but Jamaica should be watching this one very closely. The lesser Antilles will likely see some tropical storm impacts (even if it doesn't quite make tropical storm status by the time it reaches them)

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* Matthew Forecast Lounge cieldumort Tue Sep 27 2016 05:03 AM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge BayCoGator   Thu Oct 06 2016 06:24 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Steve H1   Thu Oct 06 2016 07:53 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 10:33 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge berrywr   Fri Oct 07 2016 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Oct 07 2016 04:10 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge B.C.Francis   Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Oct 07 2016 05:01 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Fri Oct 07 2016 04:51 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge B.C.Francis   Fri Oct 07 2016 05:03 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge ftlaudbob   Fri Oct 07 2016 06:28 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge madmumbler   Fri Oct 07 2016 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Fri Oct 07 2016 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge LadyStorm   Fri Oct 07 2016 10:34 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge craigm   Fri Oct 07 2016 10:53 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Lots Of Canes   Fri Oct 07 2016 11:31 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge LadyStorm   Fri Oct 07 2016 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Anton Ross   Fri Oct 07 2016 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge StormHound   Fri Oct 07 2016 01:03 PM
. * * Beachside conditions? richg   Fri Oct 07 2016 03:19 AM
. * * Re: Beachside conditions? Bev   Fri Oct 07 2016 04:23 AM
. * * Re: Beachside conditions? B.C.Francis   Fri Oct 07 2016 03:53 AM
. * * Re: Beachside conditions? richg   Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Colleen A.   Fri Oct 07 2016 01:53 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Fri Oct 07 2016 03:12 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Fri Oct 07 2016 03:07 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Bev   Fri Oct 07 2016 02:22 AM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Prospero   Thu Oct 06 2016 10:30 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Jelf   Thu Oct 06 2016 11:31 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 04 2016 06:40 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 02:34 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Hawkeyewx   Fri Sep 30 2016 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Fri Sep 30 2016 05:27 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Steve H1   Mon Oct 03 2016 12:38 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 02:02 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Mon Oct 03 2016 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 05:43 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Tue Oct 04 2016 06:16 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Tue Oct 04 2016 06:46 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Tue Oct 04 2016 06:53 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Tue Oct 04 2016 06:27 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 04 2016 08:28 AM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Tazmanian93   Tue Oct 04 2016 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MissBecky   Tue Oct 04 2016 03:36 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MichaelA   Tue Oct 04 2016 04:12 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Tazmanian93   Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge rmbjoe1954   Tue Oct 04 2016 04:41 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Prospero   Tue Oct 04 2016 09:49 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Colleen A.   Tue Oct 04 2016 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Tue Oct 04 2016 11:09 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 05 2016 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge madmumbler   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:34 AM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Jelf   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:36 AM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Oct 05 2016 09:00 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Colleen A.   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:17 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge vonkamp   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:54 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Colleen A.   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:22 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:15 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge IsoFlame   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:35 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Lots Of Canes   Thu Oct 06 2016 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Oct 06 2016 08:39 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge tkusant   Thu Oct 06 2016 09:09 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Myles   Thu Oct 06 2016 09:44 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Thu Oct 06 2016 11:16 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Leemc   Thu Oct 06 2016 11:30 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Kraig   Thu Oct 06 2016 11:59 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Leemc   Thu Oct 06 2016 12:40 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge LadyStorm   Thu Oct 06 2016 02:57 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Steve H1   Thu Oct 06 2016 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Tazmanian93   Thu Oct 06 2016 04:21 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Prospero   Wed Oct 05 2016 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge mikethewreck   Wed Oct 05 2016 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Marknole   Wed Oct 05 2016 03:26 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Oct 05 2016 03:36 PM
. * * GFS Pressure off from other models Lots Of Canes   Wed Oct 05 2016 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge dolfinatic   Wed Oct 05 2016 03:24 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge JMII   Wed Oct 05 2016 03:40 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge OrlandoDan   Wed Oct 05 2016 03:23 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Random Chaos   Wed Oct 05 2016 12:40 AM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Tazmanian93   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:09 AM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Mon Oct 03 2016 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Kraig   Sun Oct 02 2016 05:51 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Colleen A.   Sat Oct 01 2016 06:48 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge CoalCracker   Sat Oct 01 2016 06:59 PM
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. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 01 2016 06:56 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge Keith B   Fri Sep 30 2016 04:51 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 30 2016 02:33 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 30 2016 01:45 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Fri Sep 30 2016 01:29 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge cieldumort   Thu Sep 29 2016 03:11 PM
. * * Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 07:30 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE windy15   Wed Sep 28 2016 10:43 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Kraig   Wed Sep 28 2016 10:45 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE windy15   Wed Sep 28 2016 11:05 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 27 2016 05:03 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE OrlandoDan   Tue Sep 27 2016 07:00 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE craigm   Tue Sep 27 2016 10:48 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE doug   Tue Sep 27 2016 12:18 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 27 2016 03:54 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 27 2016 04:28 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 28 2016 01:40 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 28 2016 05:39 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Joeyfl   Wed Sep 28 2016 08:28 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 01:53 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 29 2016 06:48 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 02:11 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE doug   Thu Sep 29 2016 10:00 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE IsoFlame   Thu Sep 29 2016 11:44 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE NewWatcher   Thu Sep 29 2016 01:51 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE IsoFlame   Fri Sep 30 2016 09:36 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MichaelA   Fri Sep 30 2016 07:06 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 11:55 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Robert   Sat Oct 01 2016 01:13 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE IsoFlame   Sat Oct 01 2016 07:52 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Sat Oct 01 2016 07:37 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE OrlandoDan   Fri Sep 30 2016 07:31 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 10:19 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 09:52 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 10:10 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 30 2016 12:15 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Joeyfl   Thu Sep 29 2016 02:52 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Joeyfl   Thu Sep 29 2016 09:32 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Tue Sep 27 2016 08:02 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Sep 28 2016 01:48 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 28 2016 08:03 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE berrywr   Wed Sep 28 2016 09:21 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE doug   Wed Sep 28 2016 12:30 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Rosy   Wed Sep 28 2016 12:49 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE cieldumort   Wed Sep 28 2016 01:16 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE Rosy   Wed Sep 28 2016 01:36 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE cieldumort   Mon Sep 26 2016 06:30 PM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE cieldumort   Mon Sep 26 2016 01:45 AM
. * * Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE SouthGAwx   Sun Sep 25 2016 11:23 PM
. * * Re: W Africa Wave P39L MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 23 2016 09:51 AM
. * * Re: W Africa Wave P39L doug   Fri Sep 23 2016 12:48 PM
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. * * Re: W Africa Wave P39L Hawkeyewx   Sun Sep 25 2016 03:24 PM
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