Still not developed, so take model runs with a bit of salt past about 4 days, but, here are the main oeprational ones:
GFS, Tropical Storm of Depression over the central Lesser Antilles by Wednesday afternoon, moves west into the Central Bahamas, becomes a hurricane before starting to turn north Saturday, then slams into Hati Sunday evening and weakens, over Turks and Caicos on Monday, then generally east of the US, possibly effects on Newfoundland in Canada. the Friday after it. This model si a bit suspect with the sharp north turn, but this is not impossible, the ensemble mean is a very more spread out, which indicates low confidence beyond 4 days or so.
Euro: Over the central lesser Antilles on Wednesday, Tropical Depression or Storm, by Friday, north of the southern Caribbean islands, but possibly a hurricane. Takes a bit of a southwesterly dive on Saturday, moves west on Sunday, avoids impacts with South America, stronger, Monday, slower, but moving north nnw, Tuesday, hits Jamaica from the south as a major hurricane, landfalls on Cuba Wednesday, then rides along it fairly slowly to the west northwest, and by the end of the run on late Thursday night it is just inshore over Cuba due south of West Palm Beach. Ensemble spread winds up this far out ranges from the Yucatan to the Eastern Bahamas, so a good deal of uncertainty past this Friday.
Birefly, CMC has it crossing Jamaica, eastern Cuba, central Bahamas, and then winds up over the outer banks on Wed, Oct 5th. Navgem, has it close enough to Florida as a hurricane to cause some issues, by the end ot the run. HWRF is very slow and still has it in the Central Caribbean (South of Haiti) by the end of its run on Sunday, but also as a strong Hurricane.
In short, without a developed system it is really too soon to tell beyond 4 days based on the ensemble spread, but the trend has been a bit west, enough to call odds about 50/50 for direct US impact right now. Land impacts would weaken the system, but Jamaica should be watching this one very closely. The lesser Antilles will likely see some tropical storm impacts (even if it doesn't quite make tropical storm status by the time it reaches them)
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