IMHO GFS did the best with Hermine by far. It and HWRF develop this into a 970(approx) cyclone and take it into the Caribbean and then turn it sharply north roughly along 73W over Haiti and continuing northward...thus these models and suites are based on a trough expected to exit the SE US 7-8 days from now to be very strong and pull the system due north. The ECMWF also expects a strong storm and takes the system further west and at the same intervals as GFS slows it as it is crossing over Cuba... The accuracy of these solutions depends on the relative strength and location of that trough. I would think it will be 48-72 hours before the forecast tracks can be trusted.
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