I've followed this board since Charley, and it has been a tremendous educational experience. I do have a question about Matthew's track. I've seen a sharp turn happen unexpectedly, but not one that's been predicted this far out. What's out there that would cause a turn like that to happen?
Assuming this question is in regards to Matthew's forecast hook to the north, this has actually been advertised for several days by most models, with notable exceptions being the often highly accurate ECMWF, and the GFDL.
What is likely to turn Matthew to the right (north) later in the 5 day forecast period is the steering pattern created by an expectation of lower pressure over the Gulf of Mexico coupled with an eroding and/or retreating High in the western Atlantic. The space in between would be Matthew's red carpet out of the Caribbean.
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