The westernmost extent of the current model runs is about 72 west (timing around 7-8pm tonight), if it gets beyond that point to the west then chances increase for a US impact. The rapid strengthening was forecast somewhat by the HWRF, but not so much by the GFS, deeper influences may push it a bit west also, although perhaps not enough to make it to Florida.
Jamaica, however, risk is growing greatly. The last hurricane to hit Jamaica was Sandy in 2012.
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