Significant differences continue to exist between the ECMWF ensemble members and the GFS ensemble members. It is noteworthy that many of these have also already initialized Matthew as too weak and/or too north of current intensity/location.
Also, as Dr. Jeff Masters of Wunderground points out, given large scale uncertainties, the tight clustering of GFS ensembles late in the period could actually be an indication of a systemic error in that model.
The take-away is this: Multiple players with sizeable inherent uncertainties of their own, coupled with the possibility of model weaknesses, are affecting the quality of the model outputs, and thus, the official forecast cones. Florida, the east coast, and indeed, even the Gulf, are still at risk here, and should not take their eyes off of things.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 221980
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center