Significant differences continue to exist between the ECMWF ensemble members and the GFS ensemble members. It is noteworthy that many of these have also already initialized Matthew as too weak and/or too north of current intensity/location.
Also, as Dr. Jeff Masters of Wunderground points out, given large scale uncertainties, the tight clustering of GFS ensembles late in the period could actually be an indication of a systemic error in that model.
The take-away is this: Multiple players with sizeable inherent uncertainties of their own, coupled with the possibility of model weaknesses, are affecting the quality of the model outputs, and thus, the official forecast cones. Florida, the east coast, and indeed, even the Gulf, are still at risk here, and should not take their eyes off of things.
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