0z gfs is running, a little bit slower moving than before, landfall Jamaica as a cat 4/5 on Monday evening (vs earlier runs where it was Monday midday)
Cuba landfall late Tuesday morning (6 hours later than the 18z run).
Just east of Andros island Wednesday morning. Track is basically same as the 18z run, just 6 hours behind.
Late Thursday night, 50 miles east of Cape Canaveral, cat 4/5.
Stays offshore and curves along with coast through SC Friday afternoon.
Just offshore Morehead City, NC Saturday morning, Still Cat 4, clips Cape Hatteras,
Late Saturday afternoon, just offshore Delaware, cat 3.
Late Saturday night into Sunday morning, landfall Rhode Island, Cat 2.
Not a good trend. This would force some hard decisions for Emergency Management and Evacuations along many areas of the east coast if it verified with that intensity.
If it comes to evacuations, I'd only recommend it if you are along barrier islands if you are inland and not immediately adjacent to the intracoastal, I wouldn't evacuate, especially if evacuations wind up covering a large swath of coastline. But regardless listen to local officials/media on that call. Lets hope it trends away from land in the next few model runs. Be aware, but watch to see where the storm winds up after Cuba.
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