After a shift west in the GFS, the 0Z Euro did a shift east, with the storm heading northeast during the day Monday, avoiding Jamaica but going right over the western tip of Haiti in the Tiburon peninsula over the Turks and Caicos in the Bahams then northeast going directly over Bermuda october 9th, and then going out to sea, This keeps it well east of the US, and is a much better scenario for Jamaica, and the US. (Not so much for Haiti and the Turks & Caicos and Bermuda)
The 6z GFS is very similar to the 0Z GFS, with another 30-40 miles east away from the coast at its approach to Florida, hopefully the trend away keeps occurring, however it still goves over Eastern Jamaica, Eastern Cuba, through the western Bahamas, clips the outer banks Sat, October 8th , and then landfalls in Rhode Island on Sun Oct 9th.
0z HWRF stays east of Jamaica, landfalls on Eastern Cuba, goes over Long Island in the Bahamas and heads northeast, the 6Z GFDL also does this, which is a good shift east from yesterday.
Hopefully easterly trends continue today. If we start seeing northerly motion by this afternoon or early evening things may be better off for Jamaica. Odds still favoring the system staying east of Florida, but it may be close. Continue to watch. The possibility it stalls near the Bahamas is also still there.
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