0Z GFS Run slips direct landfall just west of Haiti, but does bring the bad weather over Haiti (including the eastern blob of convection) late Monday night. Landfall eastern tip of Cuba Tuesday morning, Right up the Central Bahamas, over Nassau Wednesday night. Closest to the Outer Banks on Saturday Morning, but shifted east from earlier runs, Eventually landfalls in Halifax, Nova Scotia on Sunday night October 10th.
0zEuro does show landfall on the western tip of Haiti, but on Tuesday, bumps a bit northeast over Crooked Island in the Bahams then moves northwest through the Central Bahamas and winds up close to north Carolina on Sunday October 10th, but no landfall. This run is much slower than the GFS and west of earlier Euro runs. After that it heads out to sea.
Matthew tonight is slightly west of the forecast track this morning, which could shift the near term a bit left, but still likely to avoid a direct landfall with Jamaica. This system is large and powerful, so even a miss would still see strong weather, particularly just east of the eye, still would be preferable to a direct hit.
In short The east coast, Florida through Canada will need to continue to monitor Matthew closely uncertainty remains very high.
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