12Z GFS now curves it away before hitting North Carolina, so no NC landfall this run, but it does get close on Saturday. East of Jamaica, over tip of Haiti, through a good number of the Central Bahama Islands, including over Nassau.
Main reason this time is what is currently invest 98L weakening the ridge enough for it to get pulled east before landfall. Incredibly complex and uncertainty is high. Slight edge to staying off the US coast, but very very slight. The GFS eventually does have a landfall near Halifax, Nova Scotia/
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