Quote: So, three models with a landfall, Miami, Boca, Melbourne. That is a wide range. Three others keep it offshore. Seems like a difficult forecast for the NHC.
All of those forecasts are basically within the margin of error (aka the "cone") at this point in time. Granted some are on the very edge but that is pretty normal. This why they always tell you not to focus on the line down the middle, its just the average or NHC's best estimate. As we get closer the cone will narrow and things will become clearer but that might not help too much for Matt. Because longitude wise MIami, Boca and Melbourne are pretty much the same, while latitude wise they cover way more distance. So the problem here is somewhat like Charley: the angle of approach vs the angle of the shoreline means a small turn or jog dramatically alters where the eyewall crosses onto land (if at all). Everyone thought Charley was heading for Tampa but Punta Gorda was in the cone. This is completely different then an Andrew which was straight in. Any changes in its path wouldn't have made a big different to the effect area. Note: I'm just talking TRACK here not strength or size. 5PM update coming soon.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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