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Archives 2010s >> 2016 News Talkbacks

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4229
Loc: Orlando, FL
Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau
      Wed Oct 05 2016 06:31 AM

7PM EDT Update 6 October 2016
Eyewall reformation is occurring with Matthew, and still moving generally northwest on the forecast track. Bands of rain are already over much of Florida.


8AM EDT Update 6 October 2016

22mb of lowering in just the last 12 hours. Baring something unseen or unpredictable, Matthew is actually aiming for high-end Cat 4 to Cat 5 again. NHC 8AM Advisory has max winds still at 125, just like 5AM, but most recent recon data shows us 130-150 now just a few hundred feet above the surface, and these will likely soon start being seen at the surface.

-Ciel

5AM EDT Update 6 October 2016

In Florida, mere hours are left to complete any remaining preparations to protect life and property, as Hurricane Matthew nears ever closer while carving out a trail of pain, death and destruction wherever he goes.

Matthew is re-intensifying during these predawn hours, with Recon finding substantial pressure falls, and a sizeable area of hurricane-force winds. It is VERY likely that Matthew will be a HISTORIC major hurricane when striking and/or scraping along and/or inside of the Florida east coast.

Overnight winds have reportedly gusted into the 140s in the Bahamas, with more video evidence coming in of deadly storm surge overrunning well-built structures.

Know your threat levels. They may save your life, or the life of someone you love

-Ciel





11PM EDT Update 5 October 2016

Hurricane Matthew forecast to landfall on East Central Florida coast as a Category 4 hurricane.

A hurricane warning is now up Flagler/Volusia to FL/GA line (Fernandina Beach)
A Hurricane Watch has been issued north of Savannah River to Edisto Beach, South Carolina

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in Florida and Georgia.

5PM EDT Update 5 October 2016

NHC now forecasts landfall in Brevard county for Matthew at cat 4, then riding the coast up through Flagler county.

Storm surge estimates are 5-8 feet from Sebastian Intelt to the Savannah river.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, and heavy rains in the Bahamas. Please onsult statements from the meteorological service and other government officials in that country.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through
South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track
to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida.
However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-force winds offshore. Similarly large variations in impacts are
possible in the hurricane watch area in northern Florida and Georgia.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect South Carolina and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next
week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several
days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. In addition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas in
Florida and Georgia.

The Hurricane Watch has been extended northward from Fernandina Beach to Savannah River.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the Florida Gulf Coast from north of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River.

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Southeastern Bahamas, including the Inaguas, Mayaguana, Acklins, Crooked Island, Long Cay, and Ragged Island
* Central Bahamas, including Long Island, Exuma, Rum Cay, San Salvador, and Cat Island
* Northwestern Bahamas, including the Abacos, Andros Island, Berry Islands, Bimini, Eleuthera, Grand Bahama Island, and New Providence
* North of Golden Beach to the Flagler/Volusia county line
* Lake Okeechobee

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* North of the Flagler/Volusia county line to Savannah River

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Chokoloskee to Golden Beach
* Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge eastward
* Florida Bay

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* North of Chokoloskee to Suwannee River

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

11AM EDT Update 5 October 2016

Track slightly west, may come very near Cape Canaveral.

The Hurricane Warning has been extended northward from Sebastian Inlet to the Flagler/Volusia county line.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the hurricane warning areas in Cuba and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to specify impacts at any one location. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore within the hurricane warning area in Florida. However, a small deviation to the right could keep the hurricane-
force winds offshore.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to determine what, if any, land areas might be directly affected by Matthew next week. At a minimum, dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast during the next several days.

4. The National Hurricane Center is issuing Potential Storm Surge Flooding Maps, and Prototype Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphics for Matthew. It is important to remember that the Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map does not represent a forecast of expected inundation, but rather depicts a reasonable worst-case scenario - the amount of inundation that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded. Inaddition, because the Flooding Map is based on inputs that extend out only to about 72 hours, it best represents the flooding potential in those locations within the watch and warning areas.


Original Update

Hurricane Matthew exited Cuba late last night and now is moving north to a more northwest track toward the Bahamas. The track remains unchanged since last night for Florida, only the points shifted 6 hours based on initial timing, it is still expected to come within 20 miles of the coastline, based on model trends it may be shifted slightly west toward Florida later today at 11AM again. From recon, Matthew did weaken a bit over Cuba because of land interaction, but is forecast to be a category 4 hurricane within 24 hours again. Coastal evacuations are likely to begin today in many counties along Florida. Please watch/listen to local media and officials for the most up to date local information.

1. Matthew is likely to produce devastating impacts from storm surge, extreme winds, heavy rains, flash floods, and/or mudslides in portions of the warning areas in Haiti, Cuba, and the Bahamas. Please consult statements from the meteorological services and other government officials in those countries.

2. When a hurricane is forecast to take a track roughly parallel to a coastline, as Matthew is forecast to do from Florida through South Carolina, it becomes very difficult to estimate impacts this far in advance. For example, only a small deviation of the track to the left of the NHC forecast could bring the core of a major hurricane onshore, while a small deviation to the right could keep all of the hurricane-force winds offshore. It will likely take
another day or so for the potential impacts of Matthew in the United States to clarify.

3. Tropical storm or hurricane conditions could affect portions of Florida north of the current Hurricane Watch area, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina later this week or this weekend, even if the center of Matthew remains offshore. It is too soon to specify what, if any, direct impacts Matthew might have on the remainder of the U.S. east coast farther to the north. At a minimum, very dangerous beach and boating conditions are likely along much of the U.S. east coast later this week and weekend.

Additionally Tropical Storm Nicole is remaining out to sea in the Atlantic, and another area east of the Leewards has a low chance for development.


Let us know about how things are in your area related to Matthew in this thread.

Speculation on Matthew can be found in the Matthew Lounge.



Florida Emergency Management.
Florida Evacuation Zone Maps
Florida County Emergency Management websites
Guantanamo Bay Radar - Recording
Flhurricane Matthew Webcam and Radar Recordings

WindyTy flowing wind and wave maps

{{StormLinks|Matthew|14|14|2016|14|Matthew}}

Caribbean Radar Mosaic Recording.

Webcams:

Juno Pier (Near West Palm)
Melbourne Beach Cam
Flhurricane Cocoa Canal Cam
Cocoa Beach Pier Surf Cam
Satellite Beach Cam
Port Canaveral Webcam

List of more Surfing Gator Webcam List

See other Matthew recordings http://flhurricane.com/cyclone/animationlist.php?year=all&tag=Matthew+(2016)

{{JamaicaLinks}}

{{BahamasMedia}}

{{StormCarib}}

{{EastFloridaRadar}}

{{MidAtlanticRadar}}

{{SouthFloridaMedia}}

{{EastCentralFloridaMedia}}

{{JaxMedia}}

{{NCCoastMedia}}

{{FloridaPowerOutage}}

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau MikeCAdministrator Wed Oct 05 2016 06:31 AM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Tazmanian93   Thu Oct 06 2016 10:26 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Tazmanian93   Thu Oct 06 2016 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau SpeedwayCocoa   Thu Oct 06 2016 09:42 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Tazmanian93   Thu Oct 06 2016 09:33 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Bloodstar   Thu Oct 06 2016 09:10 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau JMII   Thu Oct 06 2016 08:05 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Random Chaos   Thu Oct 06 2016 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Random Chaos   Thu Oct 06 2016 06:53 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Tazmanian93   Thu Oct 06 2016 06:48 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Colleen A.   Thu Oct 06 2016 06:30 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau JMII   Thu Oct 06 2016 06:27 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Random Chaos   Thu Oct 06 2016 05:52 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau shelzy33   Thu Oct 06 2016 05:43 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau cieldumort   Thu Oct 06 2016 04:49 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Tazmanian93   Thu Oct 06 2016 04:19 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau JMII   Thu Oct 06 2016 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 02:44 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Bloodstar   Thu Oct 06 2016 01:25 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 01:12 PM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau Bloodstar   Thu Oct 06 2016 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 10:06 AM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Deadly Matthew Crossing Nassau cieldumort   Thu Oct 06 2016 08:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 08:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight M.A.   Thu Oct 06 2016 06:09 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing Nassau Overnight cieldumort   Thu Oct 06 2016 05:34 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas danielwAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 01:15 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas Bloodstar   Thu Oct 06 2016 12:51 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Thu Oct 06 2016 12:48 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas Colleen A.   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas ftlaudbob   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:44 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas Team getterdun   Wed Oct 05 2016 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas M.A.   Wed Oct 05 2016 05:28 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas lunkerhunter   Wed Oct 05 2016 05:20 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas Psyber   Wed Oct 05 2016 04:56 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2016 03:05 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas kapSt.Cloud   Wed Oct 05 2016 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas LoisCane   Wed Oct 05 2016 01:41 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas cieldumort   Wed Oct 05 2016 01:36 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas lunkerhunter   Wed Oct 05 2016 12:48 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas vineyardsaker   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:54 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas vineyardsaker   Wed Oct 05 2016 11:27 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas DeLandT   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:56 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas scottsvb   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:40 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2016 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Hurricane Matthew Nearing the Bahamas MikeCAdministrator   Wed Oct 05 2016 06:35 AM

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