8 PM update and the models are coming into agreement, they all point to landfall along the space coast. Titusville sticks out into the sea so this coastal rider is likely going to cut across the land there. The angle of approach is less now, thus southern FL (Miami-Dade county and southern Broward) will likely be out of the really bad stuff. However areas further north and inland (of landfall) are more under threat now. Its not often you see Orlando with a hurricane watch.
Matt is currently east of his projected path which I assume will result in the cone is pulling further north while at the same time shrinking the threat to the south. Jeff Masters posted that this is very much like David which is the 1st storm I ever experienced at only 8 years old. My biggest take away from that was the surge, even in Ft Lauderdale due to the angle, as that batters a larger section of coast then a direct-in style landfall.
There is a large amount of energy to the north of Matt's eye but it is yet to wrap around. The current asymmetrical look is why the winds are down slightly. But if Matt wraps up it could easily regain that Cat 4 status. He appears kind of squished and elongated N/S and no longer that perfect ball like before.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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