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Archives 2010s >> 2016 Forecast Lounge

cieldumort
Moderator

Reged: Mon
Posts: 2016
Loc: Austin, Tx

Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge
Wed Oct 05 2016 09:42 PM

Matthew appears to be prepping for yet another round of significant intensification overnight tonight. Deep convection is blowing up over the radius of maximum winds, and wrapping all the way around the eye. Additionally, objective forward looking T numbers out of CIMSS are hitting the 7s using a pinhole eye analysis. This current picture, combined with a forecast of very low shear aloft, abundant mid-level humidity, and 27-30c waters to a depth of up to 400' below the surface for the next 18-30 hours, argue for the potential of another rapid intensification, or at a minimum, a hike back up to high-end Cat 3, overnight. My own personal opinion is of a 55% chance of mid-range Cat 4 or better within 30 hours.

Post Extras

Entire topic
Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 05 2016 09:42 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Wed Oct 05 2016 09:42 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Oct 06 2016 04:43 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	gsand	Thu Oct 06 2016 06:22 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Tazmanian93	Thu Oct 06 2016 05:28 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	BayCoGator	Thu Oct 06 2016 06:24 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Thu Oct 06 2016 06:48 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Steve H1	Thu Oct 06 2016 07:53 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Oct 06 2016 09:40 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Ed Dunham	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:33 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	berrywr	Fri Oct 07 2016 12:42 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 07 2016 04:10 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	B.C.Francis	Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 07 2016 05:01 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Fri Oct 07 2016 04:51 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	B.C.Francis	Fri Oct 07 2016 05:03 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Fri Oct 07 2016 06:28 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	madmumbler	Fri Oct 07 2016 10:02 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Fri Oct 07 2016 10:40 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	LadyStorm	Fri Oct 07 2016 10:34 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	craigm	Fri Oct 07 2016 10:53 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Lots Of Canes	Fri Oct 07 2016 11:31 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	LadyStorm	Fri Oct 07 2016 01:16 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Anton Ross	Fri Oct 07 2016 03:11 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	StormHound	Fri Oct 07 2016 01:03 PM
Beachside conditions?	richg	Fri Oct 07 2016 03:19 AM
Re: Beachside conditions?	Bev	Fri Oct 07 2016 04:23 AM
Re: Beachside conditions?	B.C.Francis	Fri Oct 07 2016 03:53 AM
Re: Beachside conditions?	richg	Fri Oct 07 2016 04:24 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Fri Oct 07 2016 01:53 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	OrlandoDan	Fri Oct 07 2016 03:12 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	OrlandoDan	Fri Oct 07 2016 03:07 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Bev	Fri Oct 07 2016 02:22 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Jelf	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:39 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Prospero	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:30 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:10 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Lots Of Canes	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:09 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Kraig	Thu Oct 06 2016 09:59 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	EMS	Thu Oct 06 2016 09:52 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Troy C	Thu Oct 06 2016 09:57 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	BayCoGator	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:01 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:08 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Thu Oct 06 2016 10:14 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Thu Oct 06 2016 11:10 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Jelf	Thu Oct 06 2016 11:31 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	lunkerhunter	Fri Oct 07 2016 12:17 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 05 2016 10:26 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 04 2016 06:40 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 02:34 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Tazmanian93	Fri Sep 30 2016 02:45 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Hawkeyewx	Fri Sep 30 2016 03:47 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Random Chaos	Fri Sep 30 2016 05:27 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sat Oct 01 2016 09:08 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sat Oct 01 2016 12:29 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 02 2016 03:49 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 02 2016 08:22 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sun Oct 02 2016 10:16 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 02 2016 12:25 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 02 2016 01:38 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 02 2016 02:29 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sun Oct 02 2016 06:20 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	EMS	Sun Oct 02 2016 09:45 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 05:01 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 06:25 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 10:21 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	StormHound	Tue Oct 04 2016 02:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	M.A.	Tue Oct 04 2016 02:50 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Oct 03 2016 10:49 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 11:19 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Mon Oct 03 2016 11:55 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 12:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Mon Oct 03 2016 12:15 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Steve H1	Mon Oct 03 2016 12:38 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Owlguin	Mon Oct 03 2016 12:43 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 01:46 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 02:02 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Mon Oct 03 2016 05:32 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 05:43 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 07:35 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 08:58 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Mon Oct 03 2016 11:01 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Random Chaos	Mon Oct 03 2016 11:35 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 11:34 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	RichardR	Tue Oct 04 2016 12:05 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 12:30 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Random Chaos	Tue Oct 04 2016 06:16 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 04 2016 06:46 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Random Chaos	Tue Oct 04 2016 06:53 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 06:27 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 04 2016 08:28 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Kraig	Tue Oct 04 2016 12:18 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 01:30 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	tkusant	Tue Oct 04 2016 02:49 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 03:06 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 04:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Tazmanian93	Tue Oct 04 2016 03:45 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MissBecky	Tue Oct 04 2016 03:36 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Tue Oct 04 2016 04:12 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Tazmanian93	Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	rmbjoe1954	Tue Oct 04 2016 04:41 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Owlguin	Tue Oct 04 2016 03:31 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 04 2016 04:46 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Oct 04 2016 04:56 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Tue Oct 04 2016 06:15 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Tue Oct 04 2016 07:32 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 07:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	tkusant	Tue Oct 04 2016 09:16 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Oct 04 2016 09:41 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Prospero	Tue Oct 04 2016 09:37 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Lamar-Plant City	Tue Oct 04 2016 09:42 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Joeyfl	Tue Oct 04 2016 09:51 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Prospero	Tue Oct 04 2016 09:49 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Tue Oct 04 2016 10:44 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Tue Oct 04 2016 11:09 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Tue Oct 04 2016 11:32 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 11:45 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 05 2016 08:51 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	madmumbler	Wed Oct 05 2016 10:34 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 05 2016 11:02 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Jelf	Wed Oct 05 2016 11:36 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Oct 05 2016 02:42 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	kapSt.Cloud	Wed Oct 05 2016 03:56 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 05 2016 05:33 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	M.A.	Wed Oct 05 2016 05:42 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	tpratch	Wed Oct 05 2016 07:06 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	M.A.	Wed Oct 05 2016 07:22 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 05 2016 09:15 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Team getterdun	Wed Oct 05 2016 09:45 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 05 2016 08:45 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	OrlandoDan	Wed Oct 05 2016 09:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Troy C	Wed Oct 05 2016 08:58 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Prospero	Wed Oct 05 2016 08:10 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 05 2016 10:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MichaelA	Wed Oct 05 2016 08:21 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	vonkamp	Wed Oct 05 2016 10:54 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Wed Oct 05 2016 11:22 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 05 2016 11:15 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	IsoFlame	Wed Oct 05 2016 11:35 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Lots Of Canes	Thu Oct 06 2016 12:04 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Thu Oct 06 2016 08:39 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	tkusant	Thu Oct 06 2016 09:09 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Myles	Thu Oct 06 2016 09:44 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Thu Oct 06 2016 11:16 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Leemc	Thu Oct 06 2016 11:30 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Kraig	Thu Oct 06 2016 11:59 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Leemc	Thu Oct 06 2016 12:40 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	LadyStorm	Thu Oct 06 2016 02:57 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Owlguin	Thu Oct 06 2016 03:30 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Leemc	Thu Oct 06 2016 03:53 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	AgentB	Thu Oct 06 2016 05:28 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Thu Oct 06 2016 04:10 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Steve H1	Thu Oct 06 2016 04:20 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Tazmanian93	Thu Oct 06 2016 04:21 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Thu Oct 06 2016 04:26 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Thu Oct 06 2016 09:20 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Prospero	Wed Oct 05 2016 08:30 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	mikethewreck	Wed Oct 05 2016 05:20 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Marknole	Wed Oct 05 2016 03:26 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	dolfinatic	Wed Oct 05 2016 03:36 PM
GFS Pressure off from other models	Lots Of Canes	Wed Oct 05 2016 03:34 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	dolfinatic	Wed Oct 05 2016 03:24 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	JMII	Wed Oct 05 2016 03:40 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	OrlandoDan	Wed Oct 05 2016 03:23 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Random Chaos	Wed Oct 05 2016 12:40 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Troy C	Wed Oct 05 2016 12:54 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Oct 05 2016 07:03 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Tazmanian93	Wed Oct 05 2016 10:09 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Wed Oct 05 2016 10:15 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	tkusant	Tue Oct 04 2016 01:55 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	StormHound	Tue Oct 04 2016 02:14 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Tue Oct 04 2016 02:08 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Random Chaos	Tue Oct 04 2016 06:26 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 11:35 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Mon Oct 03 2016 10:54 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Reaper	Mon Oct 03 2016 10:32 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Mon Oct 03 2016 10:36 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Kraig	Sun Oct 02 2016 05:51 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	madmumbler	Sat Oct 01 2016 12:56 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Colleen A.	Sat Oct 01 2016 06:48 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Random Chaos	Sat Oct 01 2016 09:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	EMS	Sat Oct 01 2016 09:08 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	OrlandoDan	Sat Oct 01 2016 09:17 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Ed Dunham	Sun Oct 02 2016 12:55 AM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	CoalCracker	Sat Oct 01 2016 06:59 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sat Oct 01 2016 02:00 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Oct 01 2016 04:51 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	ftlaudbob	Sat Oct 01 2016 05:22 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Sat Oct 01 2016 06:56 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	Keith B	Fri Sep 30 2016 04:51 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Sep 30 2016 02:33 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Sep 30 2016 01:45 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Fri Sep 30 2016 01:29 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	cieldumort	Thu Sep 29 2016 03:11 PM
Re: Matthew Forecast Lounge	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 07:30 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	windy15	Wed Sep 28 2016 10:43 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Kraig	Wed Sep 28 2016 10:45 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	windy15	Wed Sep 28 2016 11:05 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Tue Sep 27 2016 05:03 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	OrlandoDan	Tue Sep 27 2016 07:00 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	craigm	Tue Sep 27 2016 10:48 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	doug	Tue Sep 27 2016 12:18 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Tue Sep 27 2016 03:54 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Tue Sep 27 2016 04:28 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Wed Sep 28 2016 01:40 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Wed Sep 28 2016 05:39 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Joeyfl	Wed Sep 28 2016 08:28 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 01:53 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Thu Sep 29 2016 06:48 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 02:11 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	doug	Thu Sep 29 2016 10:00 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	IsoFlame	Thu Sep 29 2016 11:44 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	NewWatcher	Thu Sep 29 2016 01:51 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	IsoFlame	Fri Sep 30 2016 09:36 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MichaelA	Fri Sep 30 2016 07:06 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 11:55 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Robert	Sat Oct 01 2016 01:13 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	IsoFlame	Sat Oct 01 2016 07:52 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Sat Oct 01 2016 07:37 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	OrlandoDan	Fri Sep 30 2016 07:31 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 10:19 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 09:52 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 10:10 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Fri Sep 30 2016 12:15 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Joeyfl	Thu Sep 29 2016 02:52 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Joeyfl	Thu Sep 29 2016 09:32 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Tue Sep 27 2016 08:02 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Ed Dunham	Wed Sep 28 2016 01:48 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	MikeC	Wed Sep 28 2016 08:03 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	berrywr	Wed Sep 28 2016 09:21 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	doug	Wed Sep 28 2016 12:30 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Rosy	Wed Sep 28 2016 12:49 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	cieldumort	Wed Sep 28 2016 01:16 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	Rosy	Wed Sep 28 2016 01:36 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	cieldumort	Mon Sep 26 2016 06:30 PM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	cieldumort	Mon Sep 26 2016 01:45 AM
Re: INVEST 97L LOUNGE	SouthGAwx	Sun Sep 25 2016 11:23 PM
Re: W Africa Wave P39L	MikeC	Fri Sep 23 2016 09:51 AM
Re: W Africa Wave P39L	doug	Fri Sep 23 2016 12:48 PM
Re: W Africa Wave P39L	MikeC	Sun Sep 25 2016 09:14 AM
Re: W Africa Wave P39L	IsoFlame	Sun Sep 25 2016 10:40 AM
Re: W Africa Wave P39L	Hawkeyewx	Sun Sep 25 2016 03:24 PM
Re: W Africa Wave P39L	cieldumort	Thu Sep 22 2016 08:35 PM

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