I'm with Ed on no Florida landfall. The track has ever so subtle been bending more and more right since this Thursday morning. I'm not ready to rule out Savannah though. The 500 and 300 millibar charts both at 06/12Z and 07/00Z showed decameter height rises along the Atlantic coast and the major shortwave out west has also shown no height falls. This is indicative of a strengthening upper ridge over the Mid-Atlantic with an axis extending east. They sampled the Gulf of Mexico for the 00Z run and the Atlantic on the 12Z run. Interesting thing about this storm is how well it's threaded the needle when it comes the eye being mostly over water through much of its life. The GFS model run at 07/00Z writes off Matthew in a week; sends Nicole out to the North Atlantic graveyard. I'm not ready to rule either of them out just yet. Upper air might have a few more surprises...yet.
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