A vigorous wave that has just left the coast of westernmost Africa has had solid model support for development over several runs, and this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 93L.
As of Aug 28 1215z, 93L was estimated to be centered near 12N 19.5W, with a minimum central pressure of 1009mb, and moving west at a rapid clip of 15 to 20 mph. The disturbance is being impacted by easterly shear, with convection displaced west of the approximate center.
There are some indication that a low level circulation may already be trying close off with 93L, perhaps at a location a little west of the presently estimated center. However, the fast forward motion of the disturbance and displaced convection will likely inhibit dramatic development in the near-term, but after 48 hours or so 93L's vigor may be able to overcome these detractors, and a tropical cyclone is expected to form - with NHC giving it a solid 70% chance of development within 5 days.
As an aside, props to vpbob21 for latching on to this wave early and bringing it to our attention more than once in the General 2017 Model Watching Lounge, where you can read from vpbob a little more on the model history of what is now 93L.
This is where to post thoughts on 93L's prospects. Long-term model discussions on 93L are also encouraged here. Pull up a chair, have a beverage of your liking, and share with us your thoughts. We may end up with lots of time to discuss this one.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 425274
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center