Quote: I call it the tunnel effect.A High to the east and a trough to the west, and the storm has nowhere to go but stay in between them.
Yes this tunnel, window or gap (whatever word you want) arrival timing with Irma will be the key. However the other factor will be her latitude during the trek west. If she stays low she could miss the gap. However the models are trending North which allows the trough to scoop her up and away. At that point her size would determine how much the NE coast feels as she races by.
Her shape today is classic 'cane - round with really good outflow, just a bit small and some dry air ahead to fight thru.
Agree it is going to have a lot to do with timing.Here are the latest runs,You can see the tunnel effect.
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