Today's model runs are a bit better news, mainly for the Caribbean islands, beyond that is still too soon to tell.
18Z GFS keeps the storm well north of the Caribbean islands, and east of the Bahamas, where the run ends, its a bit east, beyond that it's a bit odd but its still worth watching as it shows a landfall in western Long island on Sep 10th.
12Z Euro also keeps it (Barely) north of the Caribbean islands, but close enough for concern, the south side likely would be the weaker side (right of the eye is usually the strongest) It does get dangerously close to the Bahamas also by Sep 10/11th, closest to Florida on the 12th, east of the state, and moving fairly slowly. The trough toward the end of the Euro is the thing to watch if it would push it more into the coast.
In short, better news for the Caribbean, although they will still need to watch it very closely, but the official track is also leaning toward keeping it north. Beyond that is too soon to tell, impacts along the East coast are possible, but direct impact (landfall) is marginally less likely, but the future beyond 5 days is extremely uncertain. There is a good deal of risk that it could landfall along the US coast, more than most systems Still plenty of time to watch it, and there is no reason to hype this system other than being aware of it. This system is 10-12 days out and it is way too early to jump to any sort of conclusion any more than that at this point is probably hype. Watch and have a plan if you are along the east coast (particularly NC/VA/MD/DE/NJ/NY) although the GEFS says Florida, and watch, of course, in the Northeast Caribbean.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 483205
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center