Quote: I don't think Irma will continue to burrow WSW as deeply as last 12 hours for several reasons. First, historic tracks for the hurricanes of the similar strength in the same part of the Atlantic basin (though not many) did not continue south of due west. Second, the ridge north of Irma that has nudged her south of west appears to have a bit of weakness a few degrees either side of 50W, This very subtle weakness along the "belly" of the Bermuda high could allow her to track above 17N a bit longer during the next 24 hours. If this pans out, Irma may not bottom out at 16.4N as currently forecast in 36 hours.
Maybe, it's sometimes hard to tell if the upper air is exactly as analyzed, particularly without any real world soundings available. The big test will be when the Gulfstream does datasampling around Irma to get better data for the models to ingest. I think the first one will be taking off tomorrow afternoon.
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - May 2018.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 152958
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center