That upper level low is one of the things pushing Irma south of due west right now, but it should move off in time, that, and even other waves far away from Irma are making it a very complex system to track. I wouldn't doubt the NHC track though, but wouldn't be surprised to see it move a bit more south. I'm concerned that if the trend doesn't end soon the Caribbean Islands under watch right now may get a direct hit.
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