Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)
The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.
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