Quote: Setup beyond 4 days or so is complex with a pattern that could bring a quick northeast turn, followed by a twist back west (or not at all and out to sea), if it drifts far enough south, then the north turn would not be as likely or pronounced which gives Florida a lot more issues, the Bahamas are in bad shape either way for Irma, unless it manages to get far enough south to be heavily impacted by Hispaniola (Which right now doesn't seem as likely)
The area that needs to monitor Irma is extremely large, from the Northern Caribbean islands (all the way to Cuba), Bahamas, Florida north all the way to Nova Scotia in Canada.
I truly believe that the low to the N-N/W has caused/facilitated this continued south turn/flattening of the storm. Some might not have seen some of the satellite of it but for several hours it had the characteristics of a very organized system. It's turning into a big rain storm now but it's done the damage we didn't want to see. It's obviously being pulled apart now but. It's kept Irma in warmer waters, kept Irma out of the same sheer that's pulling the other low apart.
I see Irma staying north of Hispaniola however it's going to be getting some serious effects. For me, as bad as it is for Hispaniola and Cuba getting hit with hurricane effects, them being able to pull some strength out of the storm is better than it walking right at Florida as an H4 or H5.
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