GFS initialized poorly and too far north for one, it is an outlier with a lot of submodels based on it. They made the right call on that one, especially with the mean GFS ensembles being up the spine, the operational WAS an outlier. I hope the trend east happens also, but that wasn't it. (Edit: Trend east and out to Sea, I don't want the Carolinas seeing Irma either)
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