Please help me make sense of the models this morning. The NHC "official" track has Irma making landfall in southern FL and the go up over the peninsula. The South Florida Water Management District models all indicate that Irma might not even make landfall and that she would move parallel to the East coast leaving FL 50-100 miles on her left side. Why this discrepancy and which model looks more trustworthy to you? Also, I am just south of Daytona Beach. What is the biggest threat for me? Winds, flooding or storm surge? Do you have any idea as to how bad this one would be for my area? I am struggling hard with the decision to evacuate or not. Thank you!
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