Quote: Yeah... trending in the models is the key.. GFS went west but only slightly.. HMon and HRWF follow suit when the GFS does things.. but CMC trender further west again..same with GEM and even UKMet is more west into the Keys. This is looking like it will hit florida (80%) or at least skiming the east coast of FL with hurricane force winds... this is on the eastern outliner models.. or if it goes with the GEM/UKMet, Euro.. even Tampa will get TS winds and maybe Hurricane force winds .. especially in Naples,Ft Myers area.
I just watched Governor Scott give an update. It doesn't sound great for where I live; we could get 100mph winds (not sustained, of course). I've never been a fear monger and I'm not going to start being one now. Just being cautious. I'm really tired of this storm, to be honest.
I probably shouldn't mention that Jose does a loop in some of the latest runs... J storms and loops LOL (Off topic I know, but gotta find an excuse to smile and not cry)
-------------------- M. S. Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Georgia Tech - December 2018.
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