Quote: That makes sense to me. Just follow the money--I mean, the orange bands on the radar. We are buckling our seat-belts here on Amelia Island; it's gonna be a bumpy night. We have 50+mph gusts roaring right now, 35+ sustained winds, hard rain lashing and shaking the house, and worse is on the way. We still have power, but likely not for long--lights are flickering as I type.
I've been lurking here for a couple of days, and there sure are a lot of smart people on this board. Thanks to all for your input. Please keep it coming.
I am right there with you (in Jacksonville). The 11pm NHC track is sticking with the computer models and still appears to have it passing between Tampa and Orlando and continuing its bend to the NW. There's been some mention of movement to the NE by our local station and another one, but I think that is likely just the wobble of the deteriorating eye. We'll see what happens and if that NW move happens.
This is almost embarassing for the NHC. True, it doesn't make a huge amount of difference. But the NHC always used to use some common sense and experience in their tracks. The track has been wrong all day and they haven't adjusted. It's almost like they aren't allowed to vary from the computer models anymore.
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