There were only 2 small errors but these lead to major differences in who was effected -
1) Irma's constant W to WNW motion and at one point a SW motion on the Cuban coast (9/9 @ 8AM). This altered landfall from the up the spine of FL to a west coast landfall.
2) Irma's NE motion after landfall in Naples (9/10 @ 6PM) followed by a due N run for 6 hours (thru 12AM). This spared Tampa but moved damage more into Central FL (like Orlando) as the eye moved over Arcadia vs Sarasota.
Another surprise was the 1/2 eye situation that occurred in Naples. There was nothing behind (south) of the storm, I was watching Jeff's live periscope feed and the eye came over, everyone came out, then... nothing. Its didn't even rain, the winds didn't seem to come back up at all. I think this helped to limit damage in Naples somewhat. See: http://flhurricane.com/images/mirrors/2017/LRRadar/LRRadar_091020171808.png
Still working on getting my time lapse video up, taking panels down today after general clean up yesterday.
-------------------- South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, but actually had to put up the panels for: David ('79) - Floyd ('87) - Andrew ('92) - Georges ('98) - Frances ('04) - Wilma ('05) - Matthew ('16) - Irma ('17)
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