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Area for development tagged in the Bay of Campeche (SW Gulf), 20% development in next 5 days (may increase later into next week)
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Zeta) , Major: 289 (Laura) Florida - Any: 975 (Michael) Major: 975 (Michael)
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Archives 2010s >> 2020 Forecast Lounge

cieldumortModerator
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2017
Loc: Austin, Tx
Zeta Lounge
      Fri Oct 23 2020 01:42 AM


Above: Caribbean Disturbance Invest TBD IR 10-23-20 0525z Image credit: Weathernerds.org



Above: ASCAT-C 10-23-20 0514z

A long-advertised trof of low pressure we have been watching in the Caribbean has developed a well-defined center of circulation today, and as showers and a few thunderstorms are starting to organize in association with it, we are starting a Forecast Lounge on this disturbance, which is not yet Invest tagged.

NHC has held development odds within five days generally in the 20% to 30% range, and that is almost surely going to go up by morning. While early model runs have suggested that Invest TBD heads out to sea, it has some land mass interaction ahead regardless of development, and interests in and around Cuba, Florida, the Bahamas or possibly even northwest into the Gulf of Mexico - should a few more recent runs turn out to be correct, may want to pay closer attention as a Tropical Cyclone could be forming Friday or over the weekend, and traversing one or more locations in these areas.

As of 10/23 2AM CDT this disturbance has been Invest tagged, 95L, and the title has been updated accordingly. 95L has become the twenty-eighth Tropical Cyclone of the 2005 Atlantic Hurricane Season as of 10/24 and the title has been updated accordingly.
Ciel

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Edited by cieldumort (Sun Oct 25 2020 04:40 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Zeta Lounge cieldumortModerator Fri Oct 23 2020 01:42 AM
. * * Re: Zeta Lounge cieldumortModerator   Wed Oct 28 2020 03:31 AM
. * * Re: Zeta Lounge BloodstarModerator   Mon Nov 02 2020 11:34 PM
. * * Re: Zeta Lounge kspkap   Sun Nov 08 2020 12:12 AM
. * * Re: 95L Lounge cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 23 2020 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Caribbean Disturbance cieldumortModerator   Fri Oct 23 2020 03:32 AM

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