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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

MikeCAdministrator
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Reged: Sun
Posts: 4112
Loc: Orlando, FL
Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched
      Wed Sep 10 2003 10:47 PM

Thursday Noon Update:
Models trended a bit northward this morning, making it somewhat less likely for Florida, still too far to say. Henri may want to make a small comeback as a depression before raining again on Southern Virginia. It may be a wildcard with Isabel too. Interesting setup.

Keep watching.

Thursday AM Update:
Looks as if Isabel has strengthened a bit more this morning, Dvorak numbers at 7.0 make it very close to a Category 5 storm. It's still moving west, the GFDL model has trended northward overnight, but its still too soon to tell.



Keep Watching folks.

Original Update:

Persistence... Models, ridge, and upper level low. Forward Speed, intensity.

All of these are on the mind as we look at Isabel, the story tonight. Last night I made the quick prediction that it would turn out to sea, but I now believe I am wrong on that, or at least the chance of it recurving isn't nearly as great as I believed.

Isabel is a very strong Category 4 storm, it may fluctuate in intensity, but I expect it to remain a major for a while. This could change next week as it gets closer, but all along the Southest East coast (florida to the carolinas) and Bahamas need to be watching this through next week. Will it go here or there? I can't answer that.

The ridge to the north as well as the low to the west of it are directing the storm as of now. It's moving westward and it'll keep that motion for the next couple of days. After that I think it will start to move northward, and the old "when will it turn" dilemma will show up. Will it make it to Florida? Will it head toward the carolinas, will it go out to sea? We don't know yet.

I don't think it will go into the gulf, if that makes any difference to all. I do think it will weaken some and then regain strength as it gets closer to land. I do expect the unexpected, so all of it could be wrong.

Persistance...
Models have been flip flopping, earlier it was more south, now its more to the north. I expect tomorrow it will be further south again. When Recon gets into the storm friday afternoon we may see changes for models Saturday. Watch it then. The shape of the storm is also important to watch, if it gets stretched more north-south then a turn is more likely.

Models...
Look at the links below for models, they are all fairly closely clustered, so its farily persistant. Minor variations aren't important the trend they take is more. Use them but don"t abuse them.

Ridge
The ridge above the storm is keeping it moving westward now. It could weaken as it gets closer to the west and move it more north-northwestward. The other is that the ridge holds and keeps it moving further west toward florida. Both can happen, I'm leaning toward somewhere in the middle. The weather channel favors keeping it moving west, I think it'll turn toward the end. Verdict: Hung jury, wait until the weekend.

Upper Low
Watch the upper low to the west of the storm, Isabel is likely to follow mainly in its wake, and it also will have some sort of effect on the ridge as well. Remnants of Henri also will mess with things.

More importantly ignore the forecasts for now and watch, see where it goes, take what you can find and take the word of the NHC over any of us. Anything referencing next week is just a guess until we get closer. It is important to note that I do think the chance of a US landfall is highly likely with Isabel.



For Isabel I'll be attending the site much more than normal over the next few days. And updating articles as needed and making new ones.

Think I'm wrong? See something I'm missing? You are probably right. Add a comment and we'll discuss.

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.

- [mike@flhurricane.com]

Edited by MikeC (Sat Sep 13 2003 09:45 AM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched MikeCAdministrator Wed Sep 10 2003 10:47 PM
. * * Direction Change Coming? Beach   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:51 PM
. * * West? Beach   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:14 PM
. * * going west... ok...two questions, please answer them LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:23 PM
. * * Re: going west... ok...two questions, please answer them Steve   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:28 PM
. * * NRL Now list Isabel at 925 MB and 135 knts. Wow!!!!!! cajun   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:33 PM
. * * Re: NRL Now list Isabel at 925 MB and 135 knts. Wow!!!!!! Bill   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:35 PM
. * * Re: NRL Now list Isabel at 925 MB and 135 knts. Wow!!!!!! Steve H.   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:39 PM
. * * Re: NRL Now list Isabel at 925 MB and 135 knts. Wow!!!!!! met   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:50 PM
. * * Check out the divergence among the 2pm BAMM / D, etc. models Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:37 PM
. * * Re: Check out the divergence among the 2pm BAMM / D, etc. models joepub1a   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:47 PM
. * * Re: Check out the divergence among the 2pm BAMM / D, etc. models Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:00 PM
. * * so much for tight clustering and trends Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:09 PM
. * * Re: so much for tight clustering and trends joepub1a   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:19 PM
. * * Re: so much for tight clustering and trends Mike   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:25 PM
. * * Re: so much for tight clustering and trends LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:54 PM
. * * Re: so much for tight clustering and trends Kevin   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:05 PM
. * * Latest GFS... Steve   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:45 PM
. * * Re: Latest GFS... Steve H.   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:12 PM
. * * Cat 5 jth at work   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:27 PM
. * * Re: Cat 5 Steve H.   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:33 PM
. * * Re: Cat 5 Frank P   Thu Sep 11 2003 05:11 PM
. * * Re: Cat 5 SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 07:42 PM
. * * Do you get the feeling we are all way too quiet here? LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 05:46 PM
. * * Re: Do you get the feeling we are all way too quiet here? SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 07:47 PM
. * * 160 mph / 921 mb Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:26 PM
. * * Re: 160 mph / 921 mb SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 07:45 PM
. * * Re: so much for tight clustering and trends Steve H.   Thu Sep 11 2003 03:32 PM
. * * Re: West? Steve   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:23 PM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched met   Thu Sep 11 2003 07:11 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched Stev H.   Thu Sep 11 2003 07:23 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched nickster   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:21 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched Domino   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:38 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched Domino   Thu Sep 11 2003 04:43 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched tom5r   Thu Sep 11 2003 09:56 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched jlauderdal   Thu Sep 11 2003 09:57 AM
. * * 5 AM WXMAN RICHIE   Thu Sep 11 2003 05:24 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM JustMe   Thu Sep 11 2003 07:43 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Steve H.   Thu Sep 11 2003 07:46 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM met   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM FloridaNative   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:14 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM met   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:22 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Floridacane   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:33 AM
. * * a site you wont see too often.. look at the dvorak image LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 09:19 AM
. * * Re: a site you wont see too often.. look at the dvorak image Mary K.   Thu Sep 11 2003 09:30 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM met   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:42 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Floridacane   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:45 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM GaryC   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:54 AM
. * * (1) 130 kt at 11? (2) Gary C. re: Andrew's inland damage Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:04 AM
. * * Re: (1) 130 kt at 11? (2) Gary C. re: Andrew's inland damage Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:13 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM caneman   Thu Sep 11 2003 09:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Mary K.   Thu Sep 11 2003 09:08 AM
. * * agreed...andrew is a poor example of destruction to a major city LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:09 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:58 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Floridacane   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:57 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Justin in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:51 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Stuart Dave   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:19 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Jim M   Thu Sep 11 2003 09:58 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM Jim M   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:00 AM
. * * Re: Role of Henri in predicting Isabel doug   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Role of Henri in predicting Isabel javlin   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Role of Henri in predicting Isabel (Forget Henri) LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:49 AM
. * * Re: Role of Henri in predicting Isabel met   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:23 AM
. * * Re: Role of Henri in predicting Isabel jlauderdal   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:33 AM
. * * model question nickd   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:30 AM
. * * Random Thoughts Ed DunhamAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Random Thoughts Bruce   Thu Sep 11 2003 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Random Thoughts Stormwatcher2   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:05 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched FloridaNative   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:28 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:01 AM
. * * Prediction Brett   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:14 AM
. * * Re: Prediction SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:37 AM
. * * looking for an escape HanKFranK   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:31 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:44 AM
. * * Sandia: new Ambien ad? Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:54 AM
. * * Re: Sandia: new Ambien ad? Steve H.   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:01 AM
. * * Re: Sandia: new Ambien ad? SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Sandia: new Ambien ad? GaryC   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:15 AM
. * * Models Richie unplugged   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:25 AM
. * * Re: Sandia: new Ambien ad? Clark   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:21 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:45 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:21 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape andy1tom   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:00 PM
. * * Re: looking for an escape SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:35 PM
. * * Re: looking for an escape Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:32 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:34 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:21 PM
. * * Re: looking for an escape Steve   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:58 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape javlin   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:22 PM
. * * REQUEST TO EVERYONE ON THE BOARD....... LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:01 PM
. * * Re: REQUEST TO EVERYONE ON THE BOARD....... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:06 PM
. * * Re: looking for an escape zoidy   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:40 AM
. * * Re: looking for an escape SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:25 PM
. * * Re: looking for an escape Brad in Miami   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:32 PM
. * * Re: looking for an escape SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:43 PM
. * * Look Robert   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Look SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched Steve   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:06 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched javlin   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:19 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched WXMAN RICHIE   Wed Sep 10 2003 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 10 2003 11:45 PM
. * * Questions Brett   Wed Sep 10 2003 11:52 PM
. * * Re: Questions Mary K.   Thu Sep 11 2003 08:21 AM
. * * Re: Questions Clark   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:39 AM
. * * Re: Questions HanKFranK   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:55 AM
. * * Re: Questions Clark   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:13 AM
. * * Re: Questions scottsvb1   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Questions MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:49 PM
. * * Interesting Post Scott Frank P   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:16 PM
. * * Re: Interesting Post Scott SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:39 PM
. * * scott.... LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:10 PM
. * * Re: scott.... scottsvb1   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:28 PM
. * * second front the question i think... LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:54 PM
. * * Re: scott.... met   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:42 PM
. * * Re: scott.... stormchazer   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Questions met   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:58 AM
. * * J/K Robert   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:03 PM
. * * Re: Questions Jim M   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Questions met   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:29 AM
. * * Re: Questions FloridaNative   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:27 AM
. * * Isabel @ 11a Clark   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:20 AM
. * * Re: Isabel @ 11a joepub1a   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:48 AM
. * * Re: Isabel @ 11a Bill   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:58 PM
. * * upper low... not sure its movement as much as LoisCane   Thu Sep 11 2003 02:05 PM
. * * Re: Isabel @ 11a met   Thu Sep 11 2003 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Isabel @ 11a Bill   Thu Sep 11 2003 01:57 PM
. * * Re: Questions Brett   Thu Sep 11 2003 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched hurricon   Wed Sep 10 2003 11:32 PM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched MikeCAdministrator   Wed Sep 10 2003 11:38 PM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched SandiaFlower   Thu Sep 11 2003 10:32 AM
. * * Re: Isabel a Week Away But Must Be Watched clyde w.   Wed Sep 10 2003 10:54 PM
. * * Hey Clark Justin in Miami   Wed Sep 10 2003 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Hey Clark Storm Cooper   Wed Sep 10 2003 11:07 PM

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