i know it's running out of the basin, but that eastpac hurricane is going ballistic. last night i noticed an eye form on the late day visibles and figured the satelite analysis was way low, now theyve had to play catch up and make the storm look like it went up really fast. nhc has been going late on classifying systems this year.. elida was probably a tropical storm several hours before it was upgraded. not to take anything away from how quickly it has blown up.. quite remarkable.
for ref., strongest eastpac hurricane on record is linda, 13 september 1997, 160kt/902mb. since the waters over there are nothing like the 97-98 el nino and the hurricane is going to reach the edge of support ssts in less than two days, i doubt it will pass linda. probably just peak around 140kt like the forecast says and then go through an eyewall replacement cycle or two. i'm not sure what the july record is, might get that one.
one more note on elida. globals turning it north and shearing it out southwest of california in a few days, so maybe it will bring rain to the southwest and rockies later on.
atlantic side.. 97L not flaring convection like yesterday, but the exposed center gives it a more coherent look than what it had before. the erratic motion of the last few days is sort of weird, huh? cape verde origin systems usually move west fairly quickly. trades to the north are still going, but the trailer wave has now caught up to the leader after all. anyhow maybe 30% on 97L getting itself going, needs to maintain convection as it moves west. subsidence will probably get the best of it, that looks to be the mitigator. avn/mrf still trying to track a system into the SW atlantic in a few days, nogaps taking it west as a wave. none of the globals have ever liked 97L.
gee.. thats enough for now.
Note this post was moved off the talkback because it was a reply to a spam repeated post from another user. It was accidentally deleted. It has been restored to here as a workaround for the moment. Apologies. - Mike C.
Edited by CFHC (Wed Jul 24 2002 02:13 PM)