Loc: Graniteville, SC
Frances deepening, closer concerns
Thu Aug 26 2004 05:48 PM
6 PM Eastern, Thursday
Frances became a hurricane today, and is forecast to become a Category 3 over the weekend. Most track models have decided that the effects of the upper trough in the central Atlantic will be modest, and that the storm will be moving westward under the ridge in the western Atlantic during the coming week. People are already alluding to historic storms, but remember that there are usually systems like this every year and few make the history books. That said, I would be paying very close attention to it leading up to Labor Day weekend. There is also a chance it will come close enough to the Lesser Antilles to foul the weather up this weekend.
A low pressure area is consolidating off the South Carolina coast today, and some forecast models are now developing it. This system is forecast to move very little over the next couple of days, and will pose a threat days ahead of Frances' advance if it can organize. Another wave on the same old frontal boundary that has spawned the low off the Carolina coast is looking suspicious south of Bermuda this afternoon.
The days leading up to Labor Day promise to be active ones for storm trackers. Keep an eye on the tropics as August is on the wane.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by John C (Thu Aug 26 2004 06:15 PM)