Loc: Orlando, FL
Frances Approaches the Southeastern Bahamas
Tue Aug 31 2004 10:10 PM
The 11PM Advisory out and it shifts the track slightly left, GFL is what the hurricane center is favoring now. One disturbing trend is that the models slow the forward speed of the storm as it approaches the Florida coastline. However, the more southerly and Carolina tracks are still not ruled out, this time tomorrow evening we should have a better handle, that is if models and other aspects behave. Still more to come later.
This graphic (Thanks Skeetobite) represents the possible wind swath of Hurricane Force winds based on the current wind profile and current track over Central Florida as of 11PM Tuesday. The main point of this is to show that Frances is a larger system than Charley was (as far as diameter and windfield) and if the track holds could cause a wider area to see hurricane force winds.
My best guestimate for landfall as of now is the range between just south of West Palm Beach to Cape Canaveral. This could change.
Frances has trended back left with the models and we'll be updating more later tonight.
New graphic Model plots animated over time to help see trends. Source images are from the South Florida Water managmenet District webpage.
Jim Williams over at Hurricane City will be doing live broadcasts about Hurricane Frances startiing tomorrow night at 8PM EST.
Frances Models -- This image animated over time (new as of 3:30PM today)
All model "Spaghetti" for Frances from hurricanealley
The Caribbean Hurricane Page - updates from the islands
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Nice color satellite image of Frances approach
High Speed Satellite Loops of Frances (Click floater)
Current Aircraft Recon Info
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, CMC, GFDL, JMA, NOGAPS, UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.