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Archives 2000s >> 2005 News Talkbacks


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Pre-Season Warmup
      Sat May 28 2005 04:20 PM

This is Memorial Day weekend, the traditional kick-off of the summer season. Climatologically speaking we're at the very end of spring now, even if astronomical summer begins around June 21. Wednesday next week is the first of June, when the Atlantic basin season begins.

Chances are very high that nothing will happen in the next week, but to feed interest for the time being the good Dr. Gray has given us the updated season numbers (or at least had them released as of Thursday, five days prior to their announced date). They are on the high side to say the least--15 Named Storms, 8 Hurricanes, 4 Major Hurricanes. To put that into perspective, that is Arlene-Bret-Cindy-Dennis-Emily-Franklin-Gert-Harvey-Irene-Jose-Katrina-Lee-Maria-Nate-Ophelia. Plenty of company. Last year we were at 15/9/6 (or one less if you prefer to exclude Nicole)... so Gray's numbers are more or less a rehash of 2004.

The cited reasons for such a forecast are the large area of positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the tropical Atlantic and a neutral to weak-warm ENSO state. These numbers are troubling to folks who do not want a hurricane paying them a visit this year. The key, as always, will be where the storms go as opposed to how many there are. That is a tougher call to make... check out Rob Mann's forum post link of May 25 if you want to read one school of thought on what is coming up. There will be more to come on that line of topic as we get closer to the heart of the season.

HF 2115z28may

General Links
Skeetobite's storm track maps

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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

Follow worldwide SST evolution here:

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NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

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LSU Sat images

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Some forecast models:

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from Mid-Atlantic Weather
Other commentary at, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.

(primary links added)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun May 29 2005 11:25 PM)

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Pre-Season Warmup HanKFranK Sat May 28 2005 04:20 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup tornado00   Sun May 29 2005 12:38 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup James88   Mon May 30 2005 08:37 AM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup Bloodstar   Mon May 30 2005 03:52 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup javlin   Mon May 30 2005 05:15 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup GuppieGrouper   Mon May 30 2005 04:28 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup rmbjoe1954   Mon May 30 2005 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup vvvteddybearvvv   Mon May 30 2005 01:46 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup Lysis   Mon May 30 2005 01:49 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup vvvteddybearvvv   Mon May 30 2005 02:21 PM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup GuppieGrouper   Mon May 30 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Pre-Season Warmup James88   Mon May 30 2005 01:12 PM

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