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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica
      Fri Jul 15 2005 07:27 AM

11PM Update (Friday)



After undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle this afternoon, resulting in a 20mb jump in pressure and 30mph reduction in winds, Emily has rapidly intensified once again. As of the 11pm advisory, winds had increased again to 135mph; since then, recon reports indicate the pressure has fallen to 954mb. This makes Emily a dangerous category 4 hurricane once again. Another eyewall replacement cycle is likely in its near future, probably sometime during the early morning hours tomorrow. Clark has more analysis and forecast reasoning in the met. blogs below.

Original Update
Overnight, Emily strengthened again, to a category four storm. It formed a relatively small eye (around 6 nautical miles) and deepened. Right now it appears to be going through an eyewall replacement cycle, which may allow it to deepen a little more after it is complete.









Hurricane warnings are up for the island of Jamaica, as the storm will pass very close to the island, most likely just to the southwest, but the cone of error potentially puts it crossing the island as well. Once again, folks in Jamaica must prepare for a major hurricane.

Beyond Jamaica it looks as if Emily may clip the Yucatan peninsula, cross into the bay of Campeche, and eventually landfall likely in Mexico just south of the Texas border. Because of the possible error with this storm, folks along the coast of Texas to much of the eastern coast of Mexico, and the Yucatan, including Cancun need to keep a very close watch on this storm.

It will be near or over the Yucatan Monday, and over the Bay of Campeche Monday night, and tuesday, and nearing the mainland coast of Mexico or Texas Wednesday. Florida is in the clear, as is most of the Gulf coast west until Texas. However, even then the more likely scenario is into Mexico. Watch it, of course, but the ridge above it is strong and will likely keep it on a more westerly track.

Forecast models aren't being all that consistant with the exact track that far out (into the landfall in Texas or second in Mexico) So folks from Houston/Galveston southward well into Mexico will need to watch this.


Event Related Links

StormCarib hurricane reports from observers in the Islands - Jamaican StormCarib Reports
Caribbean Island Weather Reports
Jamaican Meteorological Service
Color Sat of Gulf (Animated)
RAMSDIS high speed visible Floater of Storms

Emily
Visible/IR Floater of Emily with storm track Overlays
Aruba Radar
Animated Model Plot of Emily
Model Plot Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District of Emily
Emily Spaghetti Model from boatus
Weather Underground Model Plots for Emily
QuikScat Image of Emily

Dennis and emily plotted on a google map

Area east of Emily (99L)
Animated Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L
Model Plot of Area East of Emily 99L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)

Edited by SkeetoBite (Sat Jul 16 2005 08:45 AM)

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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica MikeCAdministrator Fri Jul 15 2005 07:27 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica dearolecleo   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Allison   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:06 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:05 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica pcola   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:15 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:12 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:20 PM
. * * New Forums danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:26 PM
. * * Re: New Forums KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:02 AM
. * * Re: New Forums MikeCAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:06 AM
. * * Re: New Forums KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:12 AM
. * * Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:30 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:27 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:07 AM
. * * Re: franklin info jusforsean   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:48 PM
. * * Re: franklin info MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:16 PM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls ShanaTX   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:50 AM
. * * Nights danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:54 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls Terra   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:02 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls MikeInCorpus   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:09 AM
. * * Emily danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:17 AM
. * * Emily-Late Recon Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily-Late Recon Update ShanaTX   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:40 AM
. * * 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 05:14 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Clark   Sat Jul 16 2005 08:53 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:07 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited SeeSaw03   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:01 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 11:11 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:26 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited MichaelA   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:20 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited ftlaudbob   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:38 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:37 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Biowatch   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:36 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 10:04 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited SkeetoBiteAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:40 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 09:37 AM
. * * Re: 5 AM NHC Discussion-edited rmbjoe1954   Sat Jul 16 2005 06:25 AM
. * * 99L... watch it tomorrow HanKFranK   Sat Jul 16 2005 03:08 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:16 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:47 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls KimmieL   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:56 AM
. * * Intermediate Advisory-edited danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:04 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls tpratch   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:40 AM
. * * Lurking danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:42 AM
. * * Re: Lurking tpratch   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:45 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls HCW   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:37 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls danielwAdministrator   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:52 AM
. * * Re: Concentric Eyewalls Margie   Sat Jul 16 2005 01:11 AM
. * * Re: New Forums rdcrds   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:11 AM
. * * Re: New Forums Terra   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:37 AM
. * * Re: New Forums Clark   Sat Jul 16 2005 02:49 AM
. * * Re: New Forums drcrazibob   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:38 AM
. * * Re: New Forums 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:15 AM
. * * Re: New Forums 52255225   Sat Jul 16 2005 12:04 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica 52255225   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:23 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:55 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:01 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Terra   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:58 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:45 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:57 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Beaumont, TX   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica jrhurricane   Sat Jul 16 2005 04:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:26 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:20 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:07 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica cjzydeco   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:12 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:31 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:50 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica cjzydeco   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:13 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica trinibaje   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:24 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Ed in Va   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan NewWatcher   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:59 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:57 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan ftlaudbob   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:10 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan pcola   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan AndyG   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:04 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:30 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:50 PM
. * * Tropical Wave in Atlantic` CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Wave in Atlantic` Wanna-Be-Storm-Chaser   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:12 PM
. * * Lightning Question RedingtonBeachGuy   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:18 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question gailwarning   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:09 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question 52255225   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:13 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question BobVee   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:32 PM
. * * Re: Lightning Question gailwarning   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:14 PM
. * * Emily Discussion danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:24 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan FlaRebel   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:39 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4,yucatan Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:15 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Biowatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:02 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica HumanCookie   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:45 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica GuppieGrouper   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:03 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica rmbjoe1954   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:20 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Frank P   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:43 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:14 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Wingman51   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:35 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:40 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica MadDog   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:51 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica AgentB   Fri Jul 15 2005 09:55 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:33 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica AgentB   Fri Jul 15 2005 03:13 PM
. * * Question about Emily Models Allison   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Question about Emily Models Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:02 PM
. * * Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:31 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Hurricane Fredrick 1979   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:40 PM
. * * RECON Update danielwAdministrator   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:43 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:47 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:58 PM
. * * Re: RECON Update Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:09 PM
. * * Emily regains major hurricane status WeatherNLU   Fri Jul 15 2005 08:02 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:07 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite angelswatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:54 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite HCW   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:51 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:55 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite angelswatch   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:00 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite Storm Cooper   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:03 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Question about satellite ShanaTX   Fri Jul 15 2005 07:02 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rasvar   Fri Jul 15 2005 04:14 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 06:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica nandav   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:10 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Ed G   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:19 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica nandav   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 10:44 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 11:58 AM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica VandyBrad   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:00 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 12:23 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:31 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica NewWatcher   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 01:42 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:20 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rabbit   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:25 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Margie   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Clark   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:46 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:26 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica Rabbit   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:29 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica doug   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:34 PM
. * * Re: Emily Category 4, Hurricane Warnings up for Jamaica CaneTrackerInSoFl   Fri Jul 15 2005 02:30 PM

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