Saturday Update As of the 5pm advisory packages, we now have our tenth tropical depression of the season out in the Central Atlantic. It is weak right now and undergoing some shear, so only slow development is expected as it generally moves towards the northwest over the next 3-5 days. Interests in the Northern Lesser Antilles should watch this one, though the current guidance and NHC path suggest it should stay north of there. If it becomes a named system, it would be Jose -- and the earliest 10th named storm in recorded history in the Atlantic.
Today also marks the 1 year anniversary of Hurricane Charley making landfall in Southwest Florida. Charley was the second costliest hurricane on record in the US, causing over $15 billion in damages.
Original Update Tropical Storm Irene is due to have Recon enter the system today. It's current motion is to the northwest and will likely continue on this for the next day or two.
It will then likely move more northward, well before land. However, later on it looks like steering currents will relax, and allow Irene to meander, eventually being pushed out to sea by the steering flow.
The Recon should help gain more confidence in the currently somewhat shaky forecast beyond a few days. I do not expect Irene to landfall along the East Coast, but areas in the cone should be on the watch.
Beyond Irene another tropical wave AKA 96L is in the Central Atlantic, it's looking better today and may become a depression tomorrow.
Hurricane Charley arrived in Florida a year ago today, starting the 2004 hell year for storms.
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