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Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Florence nearing Hurricane Status
      Tue Sep 05 2006 05:49 PM

4 AM EDT 9 Sep Update
US Air Force Reserve Weather Reconnaisance has now departed from their first mission into Tropical Storm Florence. They relocated the center to the south of where satellite estimates had it placed. Maximum flight level wind speed on this mission was 61 kts, or 70.2 mph.
Still shy of Cat 1 Hurricane status. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 345 nautical miles. Mainly in the NE Quadrant.
Wave just East-Southeast of Florence was designated 93L, by the Navy last night.
~danielw
0745Z AVN IR Enhancment



7AM 6 Sep Update
Florence is still maintaining itself as a large, but relatively weak Tropical Storm moving west northwest through the Atlantic.

Most likely the storm will recurve away from land, and I'll avoid trying to "wishcast" it westward any. We'll continue to watch it for surprises, though. Another wave in the far eastern Atlantic has a small chance to develop over the next few days as well.

- Mike C.

Original Update
We're very near the statistical peak of the hurricane season, and the Atlantic basin is acting in kind. Tropical storm Florence was designated this morning after two days of depression status. The storm is likely to slowly intensify while it consolidates and then rapidly intensify later this week as atmospheric conditions become more optimized. Most model guidance is recurving the system off the east coast to the west of Bermuda, and this solution looks to be the most likely path--however it has trended west some over the last couple of days, so the threat to the mid-Atlantic up to the Canadian Maritimes isn't completely nil. The strength of ridging in the northwestern Atlantic and the degree to which a first shortwave bypasses and a subsequent trough dig into the Eastern U.S. also have bearing on what Florence does. It is likely to be a significant hurricane by this weekend.

Behind Florence is another wave with a surface low. It is designated Invest 91L right now, the 22nd Invest of the year. Several global models show this feature developing and several show little change. It has limited convection right now, and only a broad circulation. The proximity to Florence may result in it being sheared in a couple of days, but right now the proximity doesn't seem to have any adverse affect on the disturbance. It will likely move west to west-northwest behind Florence through the week, under strong ridging in the central Atlantic.
Disturbed weather near Florida remains disorganized. Waves entering and passing through the eastern Caribbean lack organization as well. Some globals show the next wave coming off Africa developing some as well, but a strong trough off Northwest Africa may take it up, according to several models, if it were to develop early.

Chance for east central Atlantic wave (91L) to develop in the next 24-48 hours, about 5.5.
Code:

(forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[----------*---------]






Tropical Storm Florence

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
Google Map Plot of System
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of Florence

93L (Eastern Atlantic wave):
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot
Animated Model Plot
SFWMD Model Plot
More model runs on from Jonathan Vigh's page

Edited by danielw (Sat Sep 09 2006 05:20 AM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Florence nearing Hurricane Status HanKFranK Tue Sep 05 2006 05:49 PM
. * * Re: it's all about the structure cieldumort   Sun Sep 10 2006 02:13 AM
. * * it's all about the structure HanKFranK   Sun Sep 10 2006 01:39 AM
. * * Re: Model update... cieldumort   Sun Sep 10 2006 12:52 AM
. * * Model update... typhoon_tip   Sat Sep 09 2006 02:10 PM
. * * Re: Other Waves allan   Sat Sep 09 2006 11:46 AM
. * * Re: Other Waves Ed in Va   Sat Sep 09 2006 11:40 AM
. * * Florence nearing Hurricane Status typhoon_tip   Sat Sep 09 2006 11:17 AM
. * * Re: Other Waves SebastianLou   Sat Sep 09 2006 09:55 AM
. * * Re: 430 AM EDT Update GuppieGrouper   Sat Sep 09 2006 09:54 AM
. * * Re: 430 AM EDT Update Gary in Jax   Sat Sep 09 2006 09:37 AM
. * * Re: Other Waves allan   Sat Sep 09 2006 09:35 AM
. * * Re: 430 AM EDT Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 09 2006 05:18 AM
. * * Re: 430 AM EDT Update Storm Cooper   Sat Sep 09 2006 05:05 AM
. * * Re: 430 AM EDT Update ltpat228   Sat Sep 09 2006 05:01 AM
. * * 430 AM EDT Update danielwAdministrator   Sat Sep 09 2006 04:39 AM
. * * Re: Other Waves BillD   Sat Sep 09 2006 12:46 AM
. * * Re: Other Waves cieldumort   Fri Sep 08 2006 11:58 PM
. * * Re: Other Waves ltpat228   Fri Sep 08 2006 10:12 PM
. * * Other Waves danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 08 2006 09:58 PM
. * * 93L danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 08 2006 09:35 PM
. * * Re: 07L? BillD   Fri Sep 08 2006 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Florence strengthening... danielwAdministrator   Fri Sep 08 2006 08:54 PM
. * * Re: 07L? Ed in Va   Fri Sep 08 2006 04:41 PM
. * * Re: Florence strengthening... thurricane   Fri Sep 08 2006 04:21 PM
. * * Re: 07L? CarolinaGurl   Fri Sep 08 2006 04:09 PM
. * * Florence strengthening... typhoon_tip   Fri Sep 08 2006 03:05 PM
. * * Re: 07L? Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 08 2006 02:53 PM
. * * 07L? CoalCracker   Fri Sep 08 2006 02:43 PM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic Kitten0234   Fri Sep 08 2006 01:17 PM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic Psyber   Fri Sep 08 2006 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic AgentB   Fri Sep 08 2006 12:47 PM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic cieldumort   Fri Sep 08 2006 12:35 PM
. * * Re: Florence may be winning. stormtiger   Fri Sep 08 2006 12:11 PM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 08 2006 11:38 AM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic stormtiger   Fri Sep 08 2006 11:18 AM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic zacros   Fri Sep 08 2006 09:39 AM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic Lee-Delray   Fri Sep 08 2006 09:27 AM
. * * Re: My take cieldumort   Fri Sep 08 2006 04:55 AM
. * * Re: My take HanKFranK   Fri Sep 08 2006 02:20 AM
. * * Re: My take cieldumort   Fri Sep 08 2006 12:32 AM
. * * Re: My take BillD   Fri Sep 08 2006 12:18 AM
. * * Re: Finally a different perspective cieldumort   Fri Sep 08 2006 12:10 AM
. * * Finally a different perspective richisurfs   Thu Sep 07 2006 08:19 PM
. * * Re: My take HanKFranK   Thu Sep 07 2006 06:51 PM
. * * Re: My take typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 07 2006 06:21 PM
. * * Re: My take stormtiger   Thu Sep 07 2006 05:37 PM
. * * Re: Status/update typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 07 2006 05:32 PM
. * * Re: Status/update zacros   Thu Sep 07 2006 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Status/update Storm Trooper   Thu Sep 07 2006 04:44 PM
. * * Re: Status/update scottsvb   Thu Sep 07 2006 02:16 PM
. * * Status/update typhoon_tip   Thu Sep 07 2006 12:16 PM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. HanKFranK   Wed Sep 06 2006 11:58 PM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. inHISgrip   Wed Sep 06 2006 10:58 PM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 06 2006 10:57 PM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Ryan   Wed Sep 06 2006 10:47 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence inHISgrip   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:56 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:55 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence h2ocean   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:47 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence allan   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:36 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Storm Cooper   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:27 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Ed in Va   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:26 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence West FL Jess   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:25 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence allan   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:14 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 06 2006 07:20 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Beaumont, TX   Wed Sep 06 2006 06:55 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Steve H1   Wed Sep 06 2006 06:32 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence recmod   Wed Sep 06 2006 05:38 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Genesis   Wed Sep 06 2006 04:50 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence cieldumort   Wed Sep 06 2006 04:48 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Ed DunhamAdministrator   Wed Sep 06 2006 04:47 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence rmbjoe1954   Wed Sep 06 2006 04:34 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence JOC   Wed Sep 06 2006 04:26 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence HanKFranK   Wed Sep 06 2006 03:51 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence cieldumort   Wed Sep 06 2006 03:43 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence doug   Wed Sep 06 2006 03:04 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Beach   Wed Sep 06 2006 02:47 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence scottsvb   Wed Sep 06 2006 01:49 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence NewWatcher   Wed Sep 06 2006 01:47 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence scottsvb   Wed Sep 06 2006 01:43 PM
. * * Re: weight of evidence Beach   Wed Sep 06 2006 01:35 PM
. * * weight of evidence HanKFranK   Wed Sep 06 2006 01:00 PM
. * * Re: I agree 100% typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 06 2006 12:23 PM
. * * Re: I agree 100% Solak   Wed Sep 06 2006 11:55 AM
. * * Re: I agree 100% stormtiger   Wed Sep 06 2006 11:18 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 06 2006 11:00 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Thunderbird12   Wed Sep 06 2006 10:55 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Ed in Va   Wed Sep 06 2006 10:47 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 06 2006 10:41 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Psyber   Wed Sep 06 2006 10:30 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Steve H1   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:42 AM
. * * Re: Florence slowly strengthening in the Atlantic Lee-Delray   Wed Sep 06 2006 09:36 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. cieldumort   Wed Sep 06 2006 03:39 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Sarg   Wed Sep 06 2006 03:04 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. Ryan   Wed Sep 06 2006 02:36 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. hurricaneguy   Wed Sep 06 2006 02:34 AM
. * * Re: The 11 is out. typhoon_tip   Wed Sep 06 2006 12:32 AM
. * * The 11 is out. Ryan   Tue Sep 05 2006 11:24 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC Genesis   Tue Sep 05 2006 11:17 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC Hugh   Tue Sep 05 2006 10:42 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC Clark   Tue Sep 05 2006 10:12 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC darseys   Tue Sep 05 2006 10:00 PM
. * * analogs HanKFranK   Tue Sep 05 2006 09:56 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC Ed in Va   Tue Sep 05 2006 09:56 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC Hugh   Tue Sep 05 2006 09:22 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC Steve H1   Tue Sep 05 2006 09:10 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 05 2006 08:45 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 05 2006 08:42 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 05 2006 08:39 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC JOC   Tue Sep 05 2006 08:12 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC danielwAdministrator   Tue Sep 05 2006 08:11 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC hurricaneguy   Tue Sep 05 2006 08:01 PM
. * * Re: FNMOC allan   Tue Sep 05 2006 07:53 PM
. * * FNMOC richisurfs   Tue Sep 05 2006 07:46 PM
. * * Re: Recurve allan   Tue Sep 05 2006 06:58 PM
. * * Recurve Lee-Delray   Tue Sep 05 2006 06:38 PM

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