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General Discussion >> Other Storm Basins


Reged: Fri
Posts: 245
Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Invest 99-E Developing / TS Usagi Japan Bound
      Sun Jul 29 2007 10:10 AM

While Invest 98-L is organizing NE of the Bahamas, the Pacific Basins are showing signs of cyclogenesis, as well.

The disturbance that was NE of Guam the past few days has been upgraded to Tropical Storm USAGI, as it moved westward through the northern Marianas. This might be the regeneration of old TD Cosme, all the way from the EastPac, after passing south of the Hawaiian Islands last weekend and then across the International Date Line into the Western Pacific. I will look into it.

Although just 35 Kts. as I write this, it's already looking *very potent*, with well organized core convection and a splendid CDO (Central Dense Overcast), an indicator of further, possibly explosive, intensification. (It seems that, generally, tropical cyclones in the WestPac are bigger and more 'potent looking' than an equivalent intensity cyclone in some other basin.)

Usagi is forecast to track gradually toward a weakness that will cause it to recurve in a broad, symmetrical arc, all the while the intensity indicators crank it up to at least 110 Kts. a few days out from now.

On it's currently projected track, Usagi will come very close to Tokyo, but should recurve away to the NE before making landfall. But those are long-range forecasts, so Japan will have to monitor Usagi closely over the next few days. They're well prepared for Typhoons, obviously.

A little closer to home, about half-way between Florida and Hawaii, Invest 99E is now up.

Although not nearly as spectacular to look at as Usagi, 99E appears to be consolidating nicely, with good tight low level turning about the 1009 mb low that's embedded in the wave as it pushes westward.

On the plus side, it has nice, deep, moist inflow in the SE quad in the form of 'fresh' SW trans-equatorial winds, as they are sharply deflected to the right after crossing into the northern hemisphere from their origins in the southern hemisphere.

A QuikScat pass not long ago illustrates this superbly; notice the wide swath of green and yellow barbs of abundant moisture 'pouring in' from the SW, all the while imparting 'spin' to the nascent cyclone.

On the minus side, it appears that moderate shear is precluding good convective organization, and hence it's overall development, at least in the near-term.

And perhaps more importantly, the atmosphere is *very dry* through it's entire depth west of about 125W, so the thermodynamics might not be favorable to 99E to intensify much, if it even gets going at all. We shall see.;overlay=off

I still find it a'bit odd that Hurricane Cosme has been the ONLY hurricane so far this season. That's not *too* strange for the Atlantic Basin; after all, look at Allen and Andrew; both formed in August.

But for the EastPac Basin, the second-most active basin in the world after the WestPac, it's well below statistical average to have only 1 Hurricane by the END of July, and Cosme was barely a minimal Cat 1 that lasted a mere 2 advisories, before being downgraded to TS. What is the weather up to ?!?

Hmmm...... Something tells me All the basins are going to start jumping real soon.

Aloha Greetings from Honolulu - Norm

Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Jul 29 2007 10:45 AM)

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