Loc: Orlando, FL
Low Near Jamaica Likely to Hang Around a While
Sun Jun 05 2011 08:30 AM
7AM EDT 7 June 2011 Update
The system near Jamaica (94L) is being heavily impacted by windshear today, and chances for development are dropping quickly, although parts of the system main remain, it appears that very little if any rain from this system will occur in Florida. The trough coming out it may be enough to break the overall dry pattern for later.
The rest of the Atlantic is fairly quiet too.
7AM EDT 6 June 2011 Update
The disturbance near Jamaica (94L) is a little less organized this morning, it's very difficult to find a low level circulation (or even if one still exists), and it may have moved west of the deep convection, and there is no sign of anything trying to reform closer to where the activity is.
Likely this means it will hold it's status today at around 30-50% chance for development, models are extremely spread out in where this system may eventually go, but it seems that if the low level circulation moves westward it will be less likely to do much.
Pressures in the area have been falling though, which is an indicator that it won't go away anytime soon.
Recon is scheduled to go out this afternoon, and if it does there may be a much better idea of what is going on around it. It's too early to tell if there will be any rain from this in the US (Jamaica and Hispaniola will continue to see the rains from it until it moves off)
5PM EDT 5 June 2011 Update
The area in the Caribbean, 94L, has a higher chance to develop than before, around 40%, but still is not certain, the area is very broad today and there is still no real signs of the low level circulation getting much convection wise. If it manages to get both good outflow and convection over the low level circulation, then chances start to go up for development.
No recon went out today after all, but one is scheduled for tomorrow. Models are all over the place, one trend is that if the storm strengthens (especially quickly) it tends to favor more westward direction, if it does not develop it will stay more easterly. Odds still slightly favor it not developing, and remaining weak.
For direction, and travel, until a system develops, the models tend to to be very inaccurate.
The area of low pressure, southwest of Jamaica (known as 94L) has managed to persist through some of the worst conditions for development recently, and now is actually in a position that does allow some development. Convection in the area is on the increase this morning, and if it persists will slowly raise chances for development. Right now the National Hurricane Center gives it a 30% shot to develop within the next 2 days. What is going against it is a lack of convection on the western side of the area, which is keeping it from organizing all that much.
Movement is going to be very difficult to call as there is no organized center of circulation, models are split, but the possibility of it moving back westward have gone up, but this depends on how long the system hangs out in the Caribbean, which could be days, or even most of the week. If it does move more westward, the chances of it running into higher shear are greater, and thus would keep it weak.
Although recon was scheduled the last two days, all flights were cancelled. However for today, conditions seem well enough that the recon aircraft may actually go out. With data from that we may have a better idea what is going on there.
Just to the north of the system is a strong stream of dry air, but the system is remaining south of that, which may allow it to drift a bit further west. Although the highest likelihood is that it remains east and out, the chance of it moving back toward the Yucatan are slowly going up, but it will be a long wait to determine it.
Most of the time systems in June do not do all that much, the general conditions are not quite set up for it, but the possibility remains since it likely to remain pretty much where it is this week. Which means it must be watched through .