Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane CenterHurricanes Without the Hype! Since 1995


#Chantal continues eastbound in the Atlantic. Now closely watching a new area of Interest near the Bahamas with 20% odds
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 39 (Barry) , Major: 315 (Michael) Florida - Any: 315 (Michael) Major: 315 (Michael)
40.2N 51.6W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1009mb
Moving:
E at 20 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

 


Archives 2010s >> 2015 News Talkbacks

cieldumort
Moderator


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1864
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika
      Fri Aug 28 2015 06:49 PM

Quote:


I think the challenge is the NHC is trying to average the model outputs instead of picking one group. Assume it's 12:30 pm but you don't know this. You ask 4 people to estimate what time it is - 2 tell you it's noon, 2 tell you it's midnight, and not knowing who is right, you decide to go with the average and estimate its 6 pm. You will still be way off. Same principle here - one group of models says it's going to dissipate, one group says it's going to intensify possibly to a CAT 1 hurricane and go north. Clearly one group is really on target and one is way off. But instead of choosing a group they are blending the solutions and coming up with an answer that is bound to be wrong, just less wrong than they would be if they chose one group of model outputs.




This is always the case, and while it may be more of a weakness with Erika than usual, in fairness to the NHC, the expert models are also expertly weighted, and when the forecast isn't verifying well with the expertly weighted averages, we still have expert humans at the helm to make other adjustments as needed.

The science is simply not good enough yet to always handle how these weaker, less organized systems interact with the islands. And this season is already a challenging one to forecast in.

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* A Very Weak Erika Still in the Caribbean? cieldumort Fri Aug 28 2015 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 29 2015 08:10 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika OrlandoDan   Sat Aug 29 2015 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 29 2015 08:02 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Sat Aug 29 2015 07:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika scottsvb   Sat Aug 29 2015 01:03 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 11:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika cieldumort   Fri Aug 28 2015 11:25 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika Steve H1   Fri Aug 28 2015 10:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika cieldumort   Fri Aug 28 2015 10:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 10:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 10:13 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika DaViking   Fri Aug 28 2015 09:51 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 09:40 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika Doombot!   Fri Aug 28 2015 09:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 09:23 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika OrlandoDan   Fri Aug 28 2015 08:30 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 07:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika JMII   Fri Aug 28 2015 07:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika cieldumort   Fri Aug 28 2015 06:49 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika EMS   Fri Aug 28 2015 05:55 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings Up for Central Bahamas for Erika MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 05:23 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Littlebit   Fri Aug 28 2015 04:23 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards craigm   Fri Aug 28 2015 04:21 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Littlebit   Fri Aug 28 2015 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Steve H1   Fri Aug 28 2015 03:43 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards craigm   Fri Aug 28 2015 03:08 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 11:34 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Lamar-Plant City   Fri Aug 28 2015 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 10:36 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards JMII   Fri Aug 28 2015 10:09 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards OrlandoDan   Fri Aug 28 2015 06:59 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Aug 28 2015 02:09 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards berrywr   Thu Aug 27 2015 11:11 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 10:16 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Doombot!   Thu Aug 27 2015 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards ralphfla   Thu Aug 27 2015 10:08 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Hawkeyewx   Thu Aug 27 2015 09:48 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 09:41 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 09:20 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards JMII   Thu Aug 27 2015 05:47 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 04:52 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 04:40 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards doug   Thu Aug 27 2015 04:11 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Hawkeyewx   Thu Aug 27 2015 03:56 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards scottsvb   Thu Aug 27 2015 01:30 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards doug   Thu Aug 27 2015 01:24 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Lamar-Plant City   Thu Aug 27 2015 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 11:36 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Hawkeyewx   Thu Aug 27 2015 10:48 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Lamar-Plant City   Thu Aug 27 2015 10:26 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 10:03 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards MikeCAdministrator   Thu Aug 27 2015 09:16 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Bloodstar   Thu Aug 27 2015 01:12 AM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards scottsvb   Wed Aug 26 2015 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards Hawkeyewx   Wed Aug 26 2015 09:53 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 26 2015 07:51 PM
. * * Re: Erika Encountering More Shear as She Nears Leewards cieldumort   Wed Aug 26 2015 05:29 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching Hawkeyewx   Wed Aug 26 2015 05:03 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching doug   Wed Aug 26 2015 04:38 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 26 2015 04:05 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching ralphfla   Wed Aug 26 2015 12:33 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching craigm   Wed Aug 26 2015 12:01 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 26 2015 11:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching scottsvb   Wed Aug 26 2015 10:46 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching Hawkeyewx   Wed Aug 26 2015 09:58 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching craigm   Wed Aug 26 2015 08:06 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 26 2015 07:18 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching OrlandoDan   Wed Aug 26 2015 06:21 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching scottsvb   Wed Aug 26 2015 01:14 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 26 2015 12:32 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching craigm   Tue Aug 25 2015 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching Steve H1   Tue Aug 25 2015 03:47 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 25 2015 03:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 25 2015 11:15 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 25 2015 10:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching scottsvb   Tue Aug 25 2015 10:31 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Erika Worth Watching MikeCAdministrator   Tue Aug 25 2015 09:16 AM

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  MikeC, Ed Dunham, danielw 



Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Thread views: 53869

Rate this thread

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center