I think the challenge is the NHC is trying to average the model outputs instead of picking one group. Assume it's 12:30 pm but you don't know this. You ask 4 people to estimate what time it is - 2 tell you it's noon, 2 tell you it's midnight, and not knowing who is right, you decide to go with the average and estimate its 6 pm. You will still be way off. Same principle here - one group of models says it's going to dissipate, one group says it's going to intensify possibly to a CAT 1 hurricane and go north. Clearly one group is really on target and one is way off. But instead of choosing a group they are blending the solutions and coming up with an answer that is bound to be wrong, just less wrong than they would be if they chose one group of model outputs.
This is always the case, and while it may be more of a weakness with Erika than usual, in fairness to the NHC, the expert models are also expertly weighted, and when the forecast isn't verifying well with the expertly weighted averages, we still have expert humans at the helm to make other adjustments as needed.
The science is simply not good enough yet to always handle how these weaker, less organized systems interact with the islands. And this season is already a challenging one to forecast in.
You cannot start new topics
You cannot reply to topics
HTML is disabled
UBBCode is enabled
Thread views: 59890
Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well.
Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center