A modest tropical wave with an associated pouch, P39L, centered near the Ivory Coast of west Africa is set to enter the far eastern Atlantic by the end of the current week. This wave, while light on convection, has strong model support for development in the 7-14 day range.
Normally pushing it even for Lounge material, the overall environment basin wide in the Atlantic, and especially so from about the MDR - west into the Gulf, looks like it could be in a very positive phase for both convection and organization during that time frame.
Provided P39L stays south as presently forecast by several global models, there is a chance that a strong tropical cyclone would be approaching the Antilles within a week or so, and then possibly entering the Gulf of Mexico during the first week in October.
It is worth noting that since 1900, Florida has had by far the most hurricane landfalls of any state after mid-September (source: Philip Klotzbach).
This wave has been Invest tagged 97L and the title has been updated accordingly. Recon has found a closed low with 60MPH on 9/28 and the title has been updated.
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