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Tropical Storm Cindy Forms in Gulf of Mexico

Posted: 01:34 PM 20 June 2017 | 3 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:54 PM 23-Jun EDT

7 AM Update EDT 22 June 2017
Cindy makes landfall near the Texas and Louisiana border, now moving inland.

Cindy started to develop convection along the northwestern side and it managed to wrap around just as it was making landfall. Shear had let up, but dry air intrusion from the south kept it weak. Rainfall was the biggest story along with numerous small tornadoes and waterspouts.

Rain will continue well inland, however the dry air intrusion made some fairly large pockets where places did not see as much rain, but others such as Alabama and the Panhandle wound up with much more time under rain than areas closer to the center, with the exception of right around the center once it neared land.

The most tragic accident related to Cindy was a 10 year old Missouri boy who died when a log picked up by the heavy surf ran into him in the water and hit him in Fort Morgan, AL while there for a family reunion.

Original Update
The area being tracked as 93L and Potential Cyclone Three is now, based on recon reports, Tropical Storm Cindy.

Cindy is mostly a flooding rainfall event for areas east of the storm center (As far east as the Florida Panhandle), but may also include coastal rainfall and short-lived tornadoes.

Cindy's Tropical Storm Warnings are in effect for High Island (Just north of Houston/Galveston) to the Mouth of the Pearl River

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... West of High Island to San Luis Pass along the mid-Texas coastline.

Tropical Storm Bret continues to move through the southern Caribbean,

For Bret, a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Venezuela Isla de Margarita and a Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the islands of Bonaire, Curacao, and Aruba.

more to come soon...

Event Links

Biloxi Lightgouse camera Live Stream:

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<a href="http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?252" target="_blank">Flhurricane Recording of Biloxi Lighthouse Cam</a>

Mark Sudduth/Hurricanetrack Video Stream for the system, he's heading toward the Gulf coast
mqdefault_live.jpg
See mark's position on a map <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nJEMML0QJF0" target="_blank">here</a>.

Cindy Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Cindy


stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Cindy (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Cindy (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Cindy

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Cindy
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Cindy -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


Louisiana Coastal Links North Gulf/Southern Mississippi Valley Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) East to West:

New Orleans, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Lake Charles, LA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans, LA - Lake Charles, LA -

Bret) Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bret


stormplotthumb_2.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bret (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bret (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bret

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bret
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bret -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Facebook Update Posted
12:15 pm 25-Jun-2017 EDT

A quiet week ahead in the Atlantic tropics.

Facebook Update Posted
06:52 pm 23-Jun-2017 EDT

#CINDY Loses Tropical Cyclone status. However, flooding rain and isolated tornado potential continues, pushing east

Facebook Update Posted
07:19 pm 22-Jun-2017 EDT

#Cindy now a very large inland Tropical Depression with ongoing flood and isolated tornado risks

Facebook Update Posted
06:37 pm 22-Jun-2017 EDT

Good evening - This is a product I normally don't post here but it's relevant since a Tornado Watch is out for parts of the South Central and SE USA -

WPC Met Watch

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion: #0369
(Issued at 601 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017 )

MPD Selection
Latest Previous Next MPD Summary Page


Graphic for MPD #0369
MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0369
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
601 PM EDT THU JUN 22 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN & CENTRAL GA...EXT EASTERN AL

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE

VALID 222200Z - 230200Z

SUMMARY...HIGHLY EFFICIENT RAINFALL ENVIRONMENT WITHIN WARM
CONVEYOR BELT ALSO SUPPORTS LOCALIZED TRAINING AND CELL MERGERS
THAT MAY POSE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING CONDITIONS OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

DISCUSSION...A SUBTLE SHORTWAVE WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT
CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH N CENTRAL AL PROVIDING MODEST
DPVA ASCENT ALONG THE ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSE. RAP
ANALYSIS SHOWS VERY DEEP WELL OF MLCPAES OF 2500 J/KG ALONG THE
UPPER CHATTAHOOCHEE RIVER VALLEY AS WELL AS INTO CENTRAL GA
(PLEASE NOTE VERY POOR 60 TD AT EMZ IS LEADING TO INCORRECT
ASSESSMENT OF INSTABILITY/MST FLUX IN AT VICINITY). THE NATURE OF
WARM CONVEYOR HAS BEEN FOR NARROW TRANSVERSE BANDS OF CONVERGENCE
THAT SPROUT CONVECTION WITH NARROW UPDRAFT/DOWNDRAFT CORES
LIMITING THE OVERALL COVERAGE. STILL GIVEN THE UNIDIRECTIONAL
NATURE OF THE WIND PROFILE...CELLS ARE ALSO ABLE HAVE GREATER
VERTICAL DEPTH (NOT LOST TO SHEARING OF THE UPDRAFT) AND THEREFORE
DEEPER RAINFALL GENERATION TAPPING GREATER MOISTURE DEPTH
SUPPORTING RATES OF 2-2.5"/HR. ADDITIONAL UPSTREAM DEVELOPMENT ON
THE NARROW BANDS WILL ALLOW FOR THE GREATEST RAINFALL TOTAL
STREAKS AND NEAR LOCAL FFG VALUE IN THE VICINITY WITH SOME
LOCALIZED FF POSSIBLE.

THE MAIN WARM CONVEYOR BELT FROM THE MS COAST TO ONGOING
CONVECTION IN E CENTRAL AL IS MAIN SOURCE/CHANNEL FOR MOISTURE
FLUX...GOES-16 VIS CONUS LOOP SHOWS SECONDARY STREAM FROM SLY
CHANNEL FROM EASTERN APALACHEE BAY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL
MST CONVERGENCE TO AID FURTHER DEVELOPMENT. THESE CELLS ALSO HAVE
A MORE NORTHERLY CELL MOTION COMPARED TO CELLS IN THE WARM
CONVEYOR (MORE NE). AS SUCH THERE IS GOOD PROBABILITY FOR CELL
MERGERS INTO WEST CENTRAL AND N GA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS FURTHER
INCREASING FLASH FLOODING CHANCES.

GALLINA

ATTN...WFO...BMX...FFC...

ATTN...RFC...LMRFC...SERFC...

LAT...LON 34968418 34758385 33588355 32538388 32298435
32448485 33028534 34138569 34958523

Facebook Update Posted
10:44 am 22-Jun-2017 EDT

Storm Downgraded: Tropical Storm #CINDY to Tropical Depression CINDY 31.0N 93.5W Wind 35MPH Moving N at 13 MPH https://t.co/A1iFilgcud

Facebook Update Posted
05:37 am 22-Jun-2017 EDT

That's some serious dry air on the water vapor image; the surface center has crossed the coastline and is now inland. You wouldn't know it existed at all by looking at this image.

Facebook Update Posted
05:34 am 22-Jun-2017 EDT

000
WTNT43 KNHC 220852
TCDAT3

Tropical Storm Cindy Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032017
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 22 2017

Radar imagery from Slidell and Lake Charles, Louisiana along with
surface synoptic data, particularly those from Calcasieu Pass
Louisiana, indicate that the center of Cindy crossed the coast
between Cameron Louisiana and Port Arthur Texas an hour or two ago.
The observations from Calcasieu indicate that the intensity is now
around 35 kt. Now that the center is inland, steady weakening will
occur and the system should become a depression later today, and be
reduced to a post-tropical remnant low tonight. In 2-3 days, or
sooner, the remnant low of Cindy should become absorbed into a
frontal zone over the eastern United States.

The initial motion is a little faster, and is about 360/10 kt.
Cindy should continue to move through a break in the subtropical
ridge today, and gradually turn toward the northeast and
east-northeast as it encounters mid-level westerly flow over the
next couple of days. The official track forecast lies between the
GFS and ECMWF predictions.

Although Cindy is weakening, it will continue to produce heavy
rainfall over portions of the northern Gulf Coast and the
southeastern and eastern United States, along with the potential
for life-threatening flash flooding in some locations. For
more information on the flooding hazard, see products from your
local National Weather Service office and the NOAA Weather
Prediction Center.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 29.9N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 22/1800Z 31.4N 93.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0600Z 33.4N 92.4W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 23/1800Z 35.4N 89.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/0600Z 37.0N 83.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Pasch

Facebook Update Posted
08:29 pm 21-Jun-2017 EDT

I have to thank my colleagues (co-administrators) for a gorgeous enhanced IR on our cover today! Well done! Good evening! Since the 5am forecast discussion I can add nothing to their reasoning except to say, it took long for NHC forecasters to recognize just how formidable the wind shear aloft and subtropical characteristics to be noted; today one major thing has changed; the wind shear aloft has almost completely dissipated and is quite light over the surface center and convection is now evident and sustaining itself over the north to northwest side of surface system. Our old friend the upper low remains to the west of the system now over SE TX and our upper ridge at 300 mbs is now over W FL and the Eastern GoM. The story is the heavy rainfall well east of the center as evident on satellite imagery and a tremendous fetch of tropical moisture is being pulled from the Caribbean all the way up into the SE USA as we speak. This analyst was talking to another analyst late last night and we were talking about how it seems we're dealing with more and more uncharacteristic tropical storms and this one while it appears subtropical could be argued it two systems; the smaller tropical cyclone itself which is as good as it has ever looked on satellite since its birth and the much larger non-tropical cyclone that one might more recognize due to baroclinic processes in the winter time. Baroclinic processes draw energy from the contrast in temperatures and moisture or contrast in air masses. I've seen more and more of this including our first named tropical system of the year before the season got underway. We'll have a long wait to see if this continues throughout many more seasons. All of you out there, thank you for visiting us, if you want to know more about the home website please check out http://flhurricane.com where you'll find a smorgasbord of weather information and a forum to talk to all of us and weather enthusiasts alike. Take care and good night!

Facebook Update Posted
10:55 am 21-Jun-2017 EDT

Tropical Storm #Cindy fighting dry air intrusion, lowering Rainfall this morning in LA/MS. AL/Panhandle will see more rain this morning.

Facebook Update Posted
10:51 am 21-Jun-2017 EDT

CIndy is weakened a bit by a large area of dry air (Tan areas on the photo) being injected to the center, which is pushing a lot of the rainfall very far east of the center, and only the NW side of the center having any real convection firing. It's still moving very slowly around in the gulf, but wind shear is dropping.

Rainfall is being reduced by the dry air closer to the center, LA/MS seeing very little rain this morning, but further east toward Alabama and the Panhandle is seeing much more.

Cindy should be in the Gulf another day before moving over land, rain will be heavy on the east side, but the closer to the center you get, the less you may see (unless the shear dropping allows for more convection to form later today)

The tornado and coastal flooding threat still remains, as storms will still pop up in the warning/watch area.

Facebook Update Posted
06:51 pm 20-Jun-2017 EDT

Cover photo has been updated to one of the last visible imageries we're going to get today. The center as you see is completely exposed and elongated and appears to me moving in a loop from east to northeast to north at this time. OIl platforms with some really enlightening names all are reporting winds from the NE at 40+ mph, one was as high as 48 mph gusting to 66 but it was far removed from the center. Dewpoints are near 80 degrees out there, so there's no question that this is a "tropical" warm core system. It just doesn't look like one!!! This analyst won't be back until late this evening. All of you have a wonderful day/evening wherever you may be. Thanks for paying us a visit!

Facebook Update Posted
05:13 pm 20-Jun-2017 EDT

These are the current watches and warnings for much of the Gulf coast. I included what's going on out west which they're enjoying lots of sunshine and high heat and the kind of humidity we'd all love to have here. That little patch of green out over parts of California is due to excessive snow melt and temperatures near 90 at those elevations, though their temperatures do fall off to near 40 at night. If you're planning on going out there, be careful around creeks, streams, and rivers.

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