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Tropical Depression Darby Moving WNW Away From Hawaiian Islands - All Warnings Cancelled. Atlantic Remains Quiet.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 752 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3927 (10 y 9 m) (Wilma)
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Maui and The Big Isle of Hawaii Under a Tropical Storm Warning for Darby

Posted: 02:35 PM 22 July 2016 | | Add Comment

Tropical Storm Darby, with 60MPH winds is approaching the big island of Hawaii, and is expected to go directly over it, Maui, and Oahu, over the next few days. Tropical Storm Warnings are up for the big Island and Maui, and Tropical Storm watches are up for Oahu.






Tropical Storm warnings are in effect for the big island of Hawaii, Maui, Molokai, Lanai and Kahoolawe. A Tropical Storm Watch may be required for Oahu early Saturday morning.

Tropical Storm Darby is approaching from the east and may have some effect of more of the Hawaiian islands other than Maui and the Big Island. Based on the forecast the storm will be near the Big Island tomorrow, and closest to Maui early Sunday morning, Hawaii time.

Central Pacific Hurricane Center

Hawaiian Media:

TV:

KITV 4 - Honolulu (ABC)

KHON 2 - Honolulu (Fox)

Hawaii News Now KGMB 9 (CBS)/KHNL 13 (NBC)

Newspaper:

Hawaii 24/7 (Big Island Newspaper)

Hawaii Tribune-Herald

Maui News

Honolulu Star Advertiser

The Atlantic likely will remain quiet through the remainder of July, but mid to late August things may heat up.

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Ed Dunham

Does A Preseason Storm Suggest A Busy Season?

Posted: 01:26 PM 04 July 2016
The short answer is 'not necessarily'. By established definition, the Atlantic Hurricane season (which is more properly the Atlantic Tropical Cyclone season) begins on June 1st and ends on November 30th. The total number of Tropical Storms (including Subtropical Storms) and Hurricanes are recorded for the calendar year. Preseason Tropical Storms and Hurricanes - activity prior to June 1st - and post season events during December are included in the annual totals, but using a Calendar Year to determine seasonal activity does have some flaws from a meteorological perspective. The rare Tropical Storms and Hurricanes that occur in January and February are recorded as preseason early activity for the current year but these events are really post-season events, i.e., they represent an extension of the meteorological conditions that prevailed during the previous calendar year.

If you examine all of the years that recorded a preseason event, some of them must be discarded. The February storm in 1952 and the January storm in 1978 were post-season events of the prior year. (Note that in 2016, Hurricane Alex (January) was a 2015 post-season storm, but TS Bonnie (May) qualifies 2016 as a preseason year.) In 1916 and 1934, the storms in May were later reclassified as extratropical systems. In 1997 the system defined on May 31st did not become a tropical cyclone (actually a TS) until June 1st so it really wasn't a preseason event. Finally in 2007 the first storm in May was reclassified as extratropical and the second system on May 31st did not become a TS until June 1st.

1887 and 2012 had two storms in May and 1908 had one storm in March (probably the 1908 season rather than the previous year) and one storm in May. 1992 and 2003 each had a storm in April and 16 other seasons had a preseason storm in May (1865, 1889, 1890, 1932, 1933, 1940, 1948, 1951, 1953, 1959, 1970, 1972, 1976, 1981, 2008 and 2015). Therefore in the 165 seasons from 1851 through 2015 there were 21 of them that had preseason activity - which is 12.7 percent of all seasons. The average storm totals for those 21 seasons: 11.2 named storms, 6 hurricanes - 2 of which became major hurricanes (Cat III or greater). Six of those seasons ended up with 10-12 named storms (an average season); 8 of those seasons had 9 named storms or less (a quieter season); 7 of those seasons had 13 named storms or more (an active season). From a climatological standpoint, a preseason storm has no impact on what the final seasonal numbers will be. Even in the 51 years of the satellite era, the 9 preseasons averaged 11.6 named storms with 3 seasons of normal activity, 3 seasons of below normal activity and 3 seasons of above normal activity.
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