The Atlantic Basin has been in a cycle of increased tropical cyclone activity since 1995 and that cycle is expected to continue in 2013 with a higher than normal number of tropical storms expected in the basin. In the past three years there were 29 hurricanes but only 3 - Irene in 2011 and Isaac and Sandy in 2012 - that made landfall as a hurricane in the continental United Status (although Sandy was not considered as a landfalling hurricane by NHC, many meteorologists disagree).

The start of the new season will soon be upon us and as of June 1st the entire state of Florida will have gone 2,777 days (7.6 years) without a landfalling hurricane - which is the longest hurricane landfalling drought in the Sunshine State since a 9 year stretch in the 1850s-1860s - and all of this during an active period in the Atlantic basin. But with regard to the frequency of landfalling U.S. hurricanes, does it make any difference if the basin is in an 'active' period or a 'quiet' period? The surprising answer is 'not much at all'. For the state of Florida there is a slightly greater risk during an active phase, but for the entire coastline from Brownsville, Texas, to Eastport, Maine, the risk is actually slightly higher when the Atlantic basin is in a period of lower tropical cyclone activity.

From 1995 - 2012 (active period): 144 hurricanes, 31 U.S. landfalls (21.5%), 9 Florida landfalls (6.3%)

From 1977 - 1994 (quiet period): 91 hurricanes, 22 U.S. landfalls (24.2%), 4 Florida landfalls (4.4%)

During the active period (1995 - 2012) 13 of the 18 seasons had a U.S. hurricane landfall and 5 of those seasons had a landfall in Florida - i.e., 13 seasons had no landfalling hurricane in Florida. During the inactive period of 18 seasons (1977 - 1994) 12 of the seasons had a U.S. hurricane landfall and 4 of those seasons had a landfall in Florida - i.e., 14 seasons had no landfalling hurricane in Florida. Finally, the inactive period also had a long stretch without any Florida hurricane landfalls - from October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days (4.86 years). Although the sample set is small, there seems to be no significant correlation between the number of U.S. landfalling hurricanes and the Atlantic basin cycles of tropical cyclone activity, however, the length of time that Florida has gone without a hurricane landfall places the state at HIGH RISK this season. With the expectation for another busy tropical season, now is the time to develop (or update) your hurricane preparedness plan.

If you have your own thoughts on just how busy this season will be, share them with others in the Storm Forum 'Outlook for 2013' thread before the season starts on June 1st.
ED

...or perhaps I should say "If a considerable number of folks yell loud enough" common sense just might prevail. From the NHC:

"NOAA broadens definition of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings
NOAA’s National Weather Service announced today that, starting June 1, the definitions of hurricane and tropical storm watches and warnings will be broadened to allow these watches and warnings to be issued or remain in effect after a tropical cyclone becomes post-tropical, when such a storm poses a significant threat to life and property. In addition, the NWS would ensure a continuity of service by allowing the National Hurricane Center to issue advisories during the post-tropical stage. These changes were motivated by the special challenges posed by Hurricane Sandy, which was forecast to evolve from a hurricane to a post-tropical cyclone prior to reaching the coast.
“Our forecasters now have more flexibility to effectively communicate the threat posed by transitioning tropical systems,” said Louis W. Uccellini, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Weather Service. “Sandy’s forecast was remarkably accurate and under a similar situation in the future, forecasters will be able to choose the best option to underscore the urgency involved”.
This policy change was first proposed during the NOAA Hurricane Meeting this past November and has since been the focus of much discussion in the meteorological and emergency management communities, in forums such as the American Meteorological Society Annual Meeting in January and the National Hurricane Conference in March. This change is also supported by preliminary findings from NOAA’s service assessment on Sandy, which will be released in May.
“I would like to thank everyone for their open and candid feedback on this proposal,” said Rick Knabb, Ph.D., director of NOAA’s National Hurricane Center. “Keeping communities safe when a storm threatens is truly a team effort and this change reflects that collaboration”."

SANDY - Postscript
There can be very little doubt that the name will be retired, but...

Was Sandy a Hurricane at landfall or not?

According to the NHC, it was not a hurricane at landfall:

"SURFACE...RADAR...AND AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY MADE LANDFALL NEAR ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY AROUND 800 PM EDT...0000 UTC...WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80 MPH...130 KM/H."

But according to just about everybody else, it certainly was.

It seems like questionable judgement to change the classification an hour before landfall since NHC had already given responsibility to local weather service offices for watches/warnings, i.e., no bulletins would need to be changed:

'700 PM EDT MON OCT 29 2012

...SANDY BECOMES POST-TROPICAL...
...CENTER EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO..."

From the NHC Glossary:
"Post-tropical Cyclone:
A former tropical cyclone. This generic term describes a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds. Note that former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical...as well as remnant lows...are two classes of post-tropical cyclones."

Note that the description contradicts itself, i.e., "a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone" vs "former tropical cyclones that have become fully extratropical". So which is it !?

If there is indeed some 'wiggle' room to determine whether a cyclone is still tropical vs post-tropical (or vise versa) then why not less rigidity as to the proper time to change the classification - no matter what an earlier forecast might have indicated? Perhaps post-analysis (along with some good scientific discussion) will restore some clarification - certainly excellent Recon data was collected prior to landfall.

I'm sure that SANDY stands alone as the most damaging Cat I (Post-tropical) Hurricane in history.
ED

Original Blog on 10/28/12
At 28/15Z, Hurricane Sandy was located about 250 miles to the southeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina, moving to the northeast at about 12 knots. Maximum winds are still listed as 65 knots however these winds are located well to the west of the center and they are probably somewhat generous. Central pressure continues to fall - now at 951MB (28.08"). In the 'classic' sense, Sandy is developing into a hybrid system but it doesn't matter much in terms of weather impacts. Sandy should arc northeast, north and then northwest today and Monday with landfall likely along the central New Jersey coast on Long Beach around 5AM Tuesday morning. Winds of 50 knots or greater are likely from southern Long Island to southern Maryland with gusts at or near hurricane force. Winds likely to be onshore from Long Beach, New Jersey, northward to southern Cape Cod, Massachusetts with storm surge up to 6-8 feet from Long Beach New Jersey to Long Beach, New York. Tropical storm force winds likely over a large area from northern Virginia to western Pennsylvania to the southern half of New York and all of southern New England - to include Washington, D.C., New Jersey, Delaware and Maryland. Expect heavy rains, beach erosion, flooding of inland waterways, coastal flooding (especially at times of astronomical high tides) and widespread power outages.

Because of an expected transition of Sandy to a non-tropical storm prior to landfall, NHC has delegated watch/warning responsibilities to local NWS offices in the impact area. I am not sold on this approach and in their attempt to avoid confusion they may have created some. The implication is that there is only the potential for confusion when you go from a tropical system to a non-tropical system and not the other way around. The un-named system off Florida last October certainly caused considerable confusion. NHC needs to evaluate a different approach to public awareness regarding the landfall and area impacts of these transitional systems, however that is another topic for another time. You can read about their Sandy Transition Plan here:

NHC Sandy Transition Plan

ED

Update - Sunday, August 26th, 2012, 1:30AM
Tropical Storm Isaac continues to move just off the north central coast of Cuba this early morning with no change in strength (60mph), however, clouds have once again started to develop around the center. Although still somewhat disorganized, the storm is expected to intensify during the night and should move through the Florida Straits and Keys and eventually turn north toward the Florida panhandle. One of the more reliable forecast models takes the storm on a more westward trek toward Louisiana while another reliable model turns the storm more northeast toward the eastern panhandle. The Tropical Storm Watch for the west coast of the peninsula has been changed to a Tropical Storm Warning and it was extended northward while the east coast watches and warnings remain unchanged. Although the latter portion of the track is a little uncertain, my initial thoughts were that Isaac would remain offshore of the west coast and no changes are yet evident to alter that thinking. Isaac remains a complex system with an uncertain future.

Original Met Blog:
At Noon today, Tropical Storm Isaac was located in the Caribbean Sea south of the Dominican Republic near 16.5N 71.0W. Isaac has moved through the eastern Caribbean Sea as a very disorganized Tropical Storm and to a certain extent it still is, however, last night the tropical cyclone showed some signs of becoming better organized. Based on Hurricane Hunter reports from a little earlier this morning, the winds near the center have increased to about 55mph with higher gusts. Movement has been to the west northwest and this motion should become more northwesterly later on Saturday under the steering influence of a developing trough along the east coast of the United States.

I anticipate that Isaac will brush the western tip of Haiti early Saturday morning as a strong tropical storm and cross the western tip of eastern Cuba (Cabo Cruz) Saturday evening as a minimal hurricane. Then across central Cuba between 80 - 81.5W and emerge on the north shore of central Cuba as a 50 knot tropical storm Sunday evening. Isaac should pass just southwest of Key West in the early hours of Monday morning as a strengthening tropical storm and again reach hurricane status well offshore of Naples on Monday. Isaac should then turn more northward and pass 60-70 miles west of Tampa early Tuesday morning as a 70-75 knot hurricane and head north toward the Florida panhandle.

Isaac has a large area of circulation and tropical storm force winds will extend quite some distance to the north and northeast of the center. Just about every part of the Florida peninsula and keys will experience tropical storm force winds at some time between Sunday evening and Tuesday evening. Blustery tropical rain squalls are likely over Florida - less frequent on the east coast and more frequent on the west coast. If the storm should encounter more of a landfall on western Haiti and eastern Cuba the intensity of the system will be significantly reduced. Everyone in and near the expected path of Isaac from the Greater Antilles to the Bahamas, the Florida peninsula and the northeast Gulf Coast should closely monitor the progress of Isaac and any NHC or local warnings, and implement necessary precautions.
ED

Chris has attained Hurricane status - the first hurricane of the season - which is remarkable given that the system is (and has been) over SSTs of 21C/70F. A temperature increase within the eye (as indicated by earlier FSU model outputs) seems to have provided the extra convective boost and subsequent wind increase to hurricane strength. The upgrade to hurricane intensity should be rather short-lived as the increasing forward motion to the north will take Chris into rapidly cooling SSTs.

From the NHC Glossary: "EYE: The roughly circular area of comparatively light winds that encompasses the center of a severe tropical cyclone. The eye is either completely or partially surrounded by the eyewall cloud."

Note the use of the term 'tropical cyclone' rather than 'hurricane'. Not every lower category hurricane has a well defined visible eye and not every well defined visible eye means that the system is a hurricane. Tropical Depressions have often been noted as having 'eye-like' features, and strong Tropical Storms have often had an eye feature. A recent example of this was Tropical Storm Cindy in the 2011 season which developed an eye over the north Atlantic (38N 49W) with 50 knot sustained winds:


TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032011
500 AM AST THU JUL 21 2011

CINDY HAS DEVELOPED A DOUGHNUT HOLE IN THE INNER CORE CONVECTION.
WHILE I AM NOT READY TO CALL THIS AN EYE FEATURE...IT DOES SUPPORT
INCREASING THE WIND SPEEDS. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ONLY SUPPORT 35 KT...GRADIENT WIND COMPUTATIONS USING THE CENTRAL
PRESSURE AND NEARBY SHIP AND BUOY REPORTS OF 1022-1023 MB IN THE
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT SUPPORT SURFACE WINDS OF ABOUT 55 KT. AS A
RESULT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 50 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY...WHICH COULD BE A LITTLE CONSERVATIVE.
.
SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE IN THE NEAR TERM AS CINDY
REMAINS OVER SSTS OF AT LEAST 24C.
.
FORECASTER STEWART

Given that Cindy attained 50 knot winds as a well developed system over SSTs of 24C, it is quite unusual for Chris to attain 65 knots over SSTs of 21C. Downward transport of strong winds through the stable marine layer in the north Atlantic is quite difficult at 24C let alone 21C. While hurricanes do form in the northern waters, they usually do so later in the season when the SSTs have warmed considerably.

What is the earliest (in the season) known tropical cyclone to attain hurricane strength above 40N Latitude in the Atlantic basin? Answer: Hurricane Chris on 6/21/2012. How many other tropical cyclones have done this prior to July? Answer: None. The only other early-season storm that came close was Hurricane #3 at 38.4N 65.3W on 6/19/1959. Considering that Chris is a record breaking event, the NHC did a good job of waiting for the data to firmly support the upgrade to hurricane status.
ED