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Tropical Storm Conditions Just Offshore Mex Coastline.

Posted: 07:14 AM 20 June 2016 | | Add Comment

6:00AM CDT June 20
TROPICAL STORM DANIELLE


Recon sampled TD FOUR around 0700 this morning to find an elongated looking system barely qualifying as a tropical cyclone, but in the space of just two hours minimum central pressure had dropped by 4mb, still falling, with maximum sustained winds as derived by SFMR comfortably running at least 35 MPH, and rising. Of some interest, a secondary tight circulation center exists at the southernmost portion of FOUR's deep convection, but this feature is not likely to replace the primary.

In addition to southeastern Mexico waking up to a more serious looking tropical cyclone, the storm is apparently doing some stair-stepping (northwesterly) into landfall, sending more of its inclement weather further up the coast, with loosely associated thundershowers now even pushing in as far north as Brownsville, TX. Also, stair-stepping up the coast into landfall could allow for more time over water.

The next name on the list this season is Danielle. This would be the earliest fourth named storm in the Atlantic basin on record, although some nameable systems were likely missed before the advent of better detection, and especially so prior to the modern satellite era.



Danielle Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Danielle


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SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Danielle (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Danielle

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Danielle
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Danielle -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)


95L Event Related Links


Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 95L


stormplotthumb_5.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 95L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 95L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 95L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 95L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 95L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

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Ed Dunham

Developing TS Colin Heads for Florida

Posted: 02:08 PM 05 June 2016
The 2016 Tropical Cyclone Season has been well underway since January with Hurricane Alex and then Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. Sunday morning Tropical Depression #3 formed just off the northeast tip of the Yucatan peninsula. TD3 will move north and northeast in the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the cyclone should become Tropical Storm Colin later this afternoon/evening. Although warm sea temperatures exist in the Gulf, moderate windshear will limit intensification of the cyclone to a slow pace. The forecast from the National Hurricane Center (NHC) brings Colin ashore in the Apalachee Bay area in the northeast Gulf near Steinhatchee, Florida, Monday evening with winds of 50mph gusting to 60mph and a Tropical Storm Warning has been issued for the Gulf coast of Florida from Indian Pass to Englewood.

After landfall the NHC forecast takes Colin rapidly across northeast Florida and southeast Georgia and into the Atlantic by sunrise Tuesday morning. Eventually Tropical Storm Warnings are anticipated for the northeast Florida and Georgia coasts. Colin should continue to slowly strengthen and continue a rapid northeast movement into the open waters of the Atlantic. Windshear may dictate a slight adjustment of the track to the east - but not by much - perhaps from Cedar Key to Jacksonville.

The primary threat from Colin will be heavy rainfall on Monday and Tuesday over the entire Florida peninsula with rainfall totals up to six or seven inches in the northern portion of the peninsula, three to five inches in the central portion of the peninsula and two or three inches in the south. Because northeast Florida and the entire Florida peninsula will be in the eastern sector of the tropical storm, isolated tornadoes are likely from mid-day Monday through late Tuesday afternoon. Windshear will make Colin a lopsided system with almost all of the associated weather restricted to the eastern sector of the tropical cyclone. Brisk south to southwest winds are likely over the peninsula Monday evening through Tuesday afternoon with gusts up to 35mph and perhaps an isolated gust to 45mph in Central Florida asociated with strong rainsqualls. Localized flooding is likely with this heavy rainfall event.
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