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Area in W. Carib now up to 40% chance for development, being tracked as Invest 90L. Lots of rain for Florida this week.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 226 (Nate) , Major: 244 (Maria) Florida - Any: 254 (Irma) Major: 254 (Irma)
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Rain For Florida and Early Development Possible

Posted: 04:45 PM 13 May 2018 | 6 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 06:24 PM 21-May EDT

This area in the Gulf of Mexico has gotten itself together fairly quickly, and the NHC issued a special tropical weather outlook with a 40% chance for tropical or subtropical development.

The biggest story here will be rainfall, upwards of 5-6 inches in parts of the Florida peninsula.

This system isn't purely tropical now, but it could become a small tropical storm before it would eventually landfall (probably somewhere in the Panhandle Wednesday or Thursday) However, most of the rainfall energy will be well to the east, which should drive the rainy weather toward the Florida peninsula. 5-6 inches in a few places, possibly.

There are signals of increased divergence aloft, which is what would be needed for something tropical or subtropical to form in the system. Shear is still fairly strong, but weakening a bit, with both the GFS and European models showing this area developing into a tropical or subtropical storm in 3 days or so



No invest area currently exists, but likely will soon.

Speculation can be found in The Forecast Lounge

Report what you are seeing where you are at here if you would like.

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida
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East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Miami, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Facebook Update Posted
08:12 pm 21-May-2018 EDT

Area in W. Carib now up to 40% chance for development, being tracked as Invest 90L. Lots of rain for Florida this week.

Facebook Update Posted
09:06 am 21-May-2018 EDT

West Caribbean low has a 20% chance to develop in the Gulf late this week, even if it does not more rain. for Florida/Gulf.

Facebook Update Posted
09:57 am 20-May-2018 EDT

Another rainy week for Florida coming, another low area coming late this week, but unlikely to develop.

Facebook Update Posted
09:32 am 17-May-2018 EDT

The ;onger range models are good for general areas to look at and monitor, but not much more. Monitor the trends through the next several days.

Facebook Update Posted
08:17 am 17-May-2018 EDT

It looks like Florida will be the moisture state the rest of May.

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