Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center : Meteorologist Blogs Hurricanes Without the Hype since 1995


Tropical Depression Two in unfavorible conditions, likely to fall apart or dissipate tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 19 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3194 (8 y 8 m) (Wilma)
Latest Meteorologist Blogs
Blog Icon

Ed Dunham

Hurricane Arthur

Posted: 05:50 PM 03 July 2014
Kudos to The Weather Channel for deviating from the 'official' forecast earlier this afternoon. At 5PM EDT on July 3rd, NHC made an adjustment westward with the forecast track for Hurricane Arthur - and the actual track is probably going to be slightly west of that.

An upper level low located near 39N 58W at 03/21Z continues to retrograde westward. High pressure is centered south of the Great Lakes behind a cool front moving eastward through the Appalachian Range. Hurricane Arthur continues to maintain more of a north northeast movement and I would anticipate a track adjustment on a course a little more to the west with Arthur moving over eastern North Carolina just to the west of the Outer Banks as a Cat II Hurricane Thursday night into the early hours of Friday morning. As the front approaches the east coast, Arthur will be nudged into more of a northeast movement with the center passing just to the southeast of Cape Cod around midnight Friday night as a minimal Cat I hurricane undergoing extratropical transition.

Hurricane conditions likely over eastern North Carolina within 25 miles of the center track in the southwest and northwest quadrants and within 75 miles of the track in the northeast and southeast quadrants. Any hurricane preparations by those who are in or near the path of the hurricane should have already been completed. A fully transitioned strong Extratropical storm should pass over Nova Scotia on Saturday and over Newfoundland on Sunday.
ED
Blog Icon

Ed Dunham

Hurricane Supplies

Posted: 02:43 PM 28 May 2014
Its been a long time - over 8.5 years - since a hurricane made landfall in Florida. Have you checked your hurricane supplies lately? If you haven't, some items may need to be updated/replaced. Most folks (myself included) have a box of batteries in their personal home emergency kit, but its been so long since the last storm that the chances could be pretty good that those batteries may need to be replaced.

Have any canned or powdered foods exceeded their storage or use date?

If you have a generator, have you checked it out recently to see if it is still in good operating order? If you stored gasoline for that generator last year, its time to use it in a vehicle or other equipment and refill the gas containers with a supply of fresh gasoline.

If you put aside some medications/insulin etc., in a First Aid kit for use in an emergency when you might not be able to get to your doctor for a few days, are they still useable?

Do you still have a small analog battery-operated TV in your hurricane supply kit? If so, it will no longer work and you will need a digital TV replacement. There are some good ones on the market that will usually pick up a few stations with their built-in antenna.

If a hurricane reduces the IQ of your Smart Phone, do you have an alternate plan for getting in touch with co-workers, friends and relatives? A portable radio is valuable for getting storm updates, evacuation status changes and school and business closings/openings.

Don't forget to include the needs of your pets in your hurricane planning - especially if you need to evacuate when a storm threatens.

I have this uneasy feeling that this year someone in Florida is going to be thankful that they took the time to prepare for the storm.
ED
Blog Icon

Ed Dunham

Are Seasonal Forecasts Worthwhile?

Posted: 11:27 AM 24 October 2013
In another Forum, Robbissimo asked some excellent questions that are certainly pertinent to this season:

"I would still like to hear your take on the 8th Anniversary of Wilma, specifically whether predicting the weather and hurricanes in particular is a worthwhile endeavor. Seriously, would anyone have predicted we'd go eight years without a single hurricane? Is it that unusual?"

All good questions that I'm sure others have also considered. The short answer is 'No', I certainly would not have predicted an 8 year hurricane drought for Florida and it is rare to go that long without a landfalling hurricane in the state. Here is a link to a Met Blog that I posted in early May of 2012 that chronicles other long stretches without a hurricane in Florida:

Florida's Next Hurricane

The 'Outlook for 2014' in the 2014 Storm Forum explores the probability that the 2014 season may be even quieter than 2013.

Predicting the weather in general and the characteristics of a specific hurricane is a most worthwhile effort. Any type of warning (Hurricane, Tornado, Flood) usually means that deaths and injuries are reduced.

Meteorology is the youngest natural science - perhaps with 150 years under its belt as a science. Compare that with astronomy with 5,000 years. Weather prediction has improved considerably, but we are still learning about the atmosphere and how to predict its changes. With the exception of summertime showers, local weather forecasts are much better than they were 50 years ago. New technology (radar, satellite, computers) has helped to make forecasts better. Does a forecast for 100% chance of rain fail to verify every now and then? - yes, but the science itself is still young. Do seasonal rainfall/temperature forecasts have merit even though their accuracy is limited? - yes, because agricultural and transportation interests, et al, can use them for planning purposes (and often save money as a result). Do seasonal hurricane forecasts have merit? - I think so, although after this season I'm sure that there will be a considerable amount of discussion and research (and soul-searching) related to that topic. Insurance companies don't really use that data as much as the public is lead to believe - but Emergency Management folks do - again, for resource planning purposes. It doesn't always prove very useful for two reasons: 1) the old adage that 'all it takes is one bad storm during an otherwise quiet season', and 2) the outlook can be way off base (like this year) - which takes us back to 'the science itself is still young'.

To continue to make the forecast and to then have some significant forecast failures usually motivates the science to seek answers in an attempt to improve the next forecast.
ED
Blog Icon

Ed Dunham

Realities

Posted: 12:06 PM 30 August 2013
So far this season there has been six Tropical Storms - which certainly indicates an above average level of activity - but the basin is again quiet at a time when the climatological peak of the season is less than two weeks away. In an average season with 11 named storms, by September 1st there would have been 5 named tropical cyclones and 2 of them would have reached hurricane strength. Many seasonal forecasts for 2013 pointed to another year of high tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic, but is there enough time left in the season for these forecasts to verify?

As an example, the latest (August 2nd) seasonal forecast from Colorado State University still anticipated 18 named storms this year. With 6 so far, the rest of the season needs 12 more for the forecast to verify, or an average of one named storm per week from September 1st through November 23rd (with 8 of the 12 becoming hurricanes since their forecast also expected 8 hurricanes). Checking the past 60 years (1953-2012), has this frequency ever happened before? The answer is 'Yes', although not very often. In 1969, 13 named storms formed in that time frame; 2005 had 14 and 2010 had 16. Other years that came close include 1953 - 10, 1961 - 10, 1984 - 11, 1995 - 11, 1998 - 10, 2000 - 10, 2001 - 11 and 2012 - 11. In a couple of those years a named storm or two actually developed after November 23rd.

Based on the past 60 seasons, the probability of 12 or more named storms forming in the next 12 weeks (through November 23rd) is 5%.

As noted above, how often is the Atlantic basin this quiet prior to the peak of the season? Once again I looked at the past 60 years to find seasons with no named storms from August 27th through September 2nd - with the following results: 1956, 1959, 1968, 1970, 1987, 1994 and 1997. The probability of occurrence for a quiet week during that timeframe is 11.7% - a little more common than I would have guessed. An Invest area with a low pressure center is about to exit the west African coast and could become a named tropical storm by September 2nd, but it will be close as to whether the system develops by then or a day or two later.

Easterly windshear over tropical central Africa remains uncommonly strong and most of the easterly waves over the continent this season have been disorganized under this constant shear. A band of westerly shear from roughly 15N-20N remains strong in the central Atlantic from 70W eastward to 30W. So far this season, atmospheric conditions are simply not yet supportive for significant tropical cyclone development in the central Atlantic primary genesis area - but that could change and a busy late season is still possible.
ED
Blog Icon

Ed Dunham

Tropical Troubles

Posted: 01:44 AM 09 July 2013
Postscript added 07/10:
Tropical Troubles Tamed
Talk about going zero for three - the TUTT low drifted southwest toward western Cuba and dried up; Chantal has come to a screeching halt south of Jamaica; the trailing wave never fired up.

Chantal as of this writing late Wednesday evening is still faintly spinning in place at roughly the 10/18Z position. Its convective shield has split with the major segment well-removed to the northeast of the former center while some convection still near the center struggles against rather formidable windshear and redevelopment seems highly unlikely although reformation is still a possibilty. I'll revise it to 1 for 4 since the emphasis on storm preparation planning is always sound advice.

Original Blog
The next ten days look quite wet over the Bahamas and Florida peninsula. A TUTT (upper level) low currently centered near northern Andros Island in the Bahamas at 08/04Z is moving slowly westward with an increase in shower activity expected over most of the Florida peninsula later on Tuesday into Wednesday. As the upper low moves into the Gulf of Mexico a persistent blocking ridge should re-establish itself over northern Florida on Thursday into Friday and that ridge is likely to stand generally firm for at least a week.

This pattern is certainly evident in the highly interesting 08/00Z GFS model run. Tropical Storm Chantal, currently racing toward the Caribbean Islands, is projected by NHC to slow down as the tropical cyclone moves into the southern Bahamas late Thursday and creeps into the northern Bahamas by late Saturday - which is all rather compatable with the GFS run. That interesting GFS run stops Chantal (or what ever it may have become by then) on Sunday and starts to nudge the system into east central Florida on Monday and across the peninsula on Tuesday and then the model run sloooowly meanders the system toward and into the north central Gulf coast.

This scenario could produce heavy rains across the Bahamas and the Florida peninsula for a week or more. A rather impressive low-latitude wave is following in the wake of Chantal. If that wave develops - and the GFS suggests that it could - the ridge to the north should still be there and the scenario could repeat itself a little further to the south. Long range model projections of tropical systems often change, so its certainly worth monitoring the tropical Atlantic for the next couple of weeks with emphasis on finalizing a storm preparation plan - just in case its needed.
ED
13.9N 53.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1012mb
Moving:
Wnw at 20 mph
Click for Storm Spotlight
COMMUNICATION
STORM DATA
CONTENT
FOLLOW US
ADS
Login to remove ads

2014 Forecast Lounge
Ed Dunham (8 replies)
TD#2 Forecast Lounge
Site Updates, Suggestions and Questions
Lamar-Plant City (2 replies)
Site clock issues?
Other Weather Events
srquirrely (4 replies)
GLINT
The Tropics Today
Ed Dunham (1 reply)
West African Wave - Pouch 03L
CFHC 2014
CFHC is a Weather Enthusiast Run Site Focusing on East Central Florida and the Entire Atlantic Hurricane Basin since 1995
Maintained by:
John R. Cornelius - Cocoa, FL
Michael A. Cornelius - Orlando, FL
Meteorologist Ed Dunham - Melbourne, FL
Site Design by:
Christine M. Hahn - Allentown, PA
CFHC is NOT an official weather source, please only use us as a supplement to official weather outlets.
18576054
[ Hide This Bar ]

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources. 
CFHC's main servers are currently located at Hostdime.com in Orlando, FL.
Image Server Network thanks to Mike Potts and Amazon Web Services. If you have static file hosting space that allows dns aliasing contact us to help out! Some Maps Provided by:
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 800x600+ resolution
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center