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NE Bahamas 91L now at 80% chance for development, looking more organized tonight. GA to NC should watch. Recon scheduled for tomorrow.
Number of days since last Hurricane Landfall in US: 692 (Arthur) , in Florida: 3867 (10 y 7 m) (Wilma)
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Area North of Bahamas Bears Watching for GA/SC/NC

Posted: 09:43 AM 26 May 2016 | 2 Comments | Add Comment | Newest: 07:57 PM 26-May EDT

3;30PM EDT Update 26 May 2016

91L's 24-48 hour development chances are up to about 60%, and it is looking much better this afternoon. It has a fair shot at becoming a depression tomorrow or Saturday.

Those in the coastal areas near GA to NC should continue to monitor the system.

Original Update

The area near the Bahamas (91L) has a chance to become a tropical or subtropical cyclone on Friday with some weakening thereafter. Movement should become more northwesterly later on Thursday into Friday as the system takes a slow trajectory toward the SC/NC border area. If the system should develop further, the potential for heavy rainfall would be the main concern for the SE United States - primarily Georgia and South Carolina for a weaker system to North Carolina for a stronger system.

At this time I don't see any significant weather impacts for east central Florida from this currently ill-defined system. Increased moisture would get the summertime thunderstorm season going again, but that is about it. In a few days, development into a Tropical Depression or Subtropical Depression is possible - and if it gets better organized, the next name on the list this (pre)season is Bonnie.

SHIPS shear forecasts have decreased for the system this morning, giving it a better chance to form and makes it much more likely to Bahamas. This may be an interesting Memorial weekend for those in the Carolinas.

Recon is scheduled to fly out tomorrow around 11AM to check on the system, if needed.

(Portions of this article were written by Ed Dunham)

91 L Event Related Links

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of 91L


SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page
Clark Evans Track Model Plot of 91L (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of 91L (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of 91L

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for 91L
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on 91L -- RAMMB Info

Floater Satellite Images: Visible (Loop), IR (Loop), WV (Loop), Dvorak (Loop), AVN (Loop), RGB (Loop), Rainbow (Loop), Funktop (Loop), RB Top Loop)

Mid-Atlantic/Carolina Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Charleston, SC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Wilmington, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Morehead City, NC Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Norfolk/Wakefield, VA Radar Long Range Radar Loop (Latest Static) Base (Static) 1 HR Rainfall (Static) Storm Total Rainfall (Static)

Area Forecast Discussions: Charleston, SC - Wilmington, NC - Morehead City, NC - Norfolk/Virginia Beach/Hampton Roads, VA

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Ed Dunham

The Erika Enigma

Posted: 05:57 PM 27 August 2015
At 27/17Z, TS Erika was located at 16.5N 63.5W and at 27/19Z Erika was located at 16.6N 63.6W - pretty much a dead stop, i.e., slow drift to the northwest, however at 27/21Z the center was located at 16.8N 63.8W - still moving to the northwest but the forward speed is increasing. With convection displaced to the southeast, positions were easy to determine based on the exposed, but still well formed, LLCC. As noted elsewhere, convection was firing on the eastern edge of the center but it is now firing over most of the center and the displacement continues to the east and southeast.

Over the past couple of days the forecast models have been of very little help in determining both the future intensity and the forecast track of this sheared tropical cyclone - both the early and the long range models have been all over the place with this system. Some of this erratic model output has surfaced in the NHC forecast which at times has seemed to be just as erratic, but if you live by the model.... To be fair, they have to come up with something every six hours whereas we have no such requirement.

When dealing with the tropics there are times (frequent times actually) when persistence is not only the best solution but often the only realistic solution so before I chastise the NHC too harshly I'll wait awhile and see how this all plays out. When forecasting hurricanes, the hardest thing to do is to have patience - when something is expected to happen but it doesn't, if you force yourself to wait a little longer the event that you expected, i.e., a turn to the northwest or something like that, eventually will. In other words the forecast idea was generally pretty good, but the timing was off.

Where is Erika likely to go - and will Erika survive to do it? Right now there are many options and all of them are realistic based on where the tropical cyclone is and what the environment looks like and how that environment is expected to evolve. Erika could get sheared apart and become an open wave. Erika could hit Puerto Rico and fall apart or survive and just miss Hispaniola. Erika could hit Hispaniola and end the storm track. Which one is the likely solution? Right now I have no firm idea - so I'll be patient for a little while longer. At Erika's current speed I certainly have enough time to do that. Erika still has to deal with a significant amount of windshear but, since the shear is primarily in the upper levels of the atmosphere, the system has been dealing with the shear rather well so far and it will probably continue to do so as long as the LLCC remains intact.
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