As of May 3rd, the little 'counter' in the upper right corner of the page indicates that it has been 2,383 days since a Hurricane last made landfall in the Sunshine State. That event was on October 24, 2005, when Hurricane Wilma crossed over the southern tip of the peninsula from the southeastern Gulf of Mexico to the Atlantic with landfall near Cape Romano. Since then, 42 hurricanes have entered the record books - but not a single one has made landfall in Florida.

A check of the weather records indicate that it is indeed very unusual for Florida to go for such a long time (over six years) without a hurricane impact. This current stretch is the second longest period of time since 1851 without a hurricane hitting the state. The longest period without a hurricane in Florida was from August 31, 1856, to October 23, 1865 - a period of 3,299 days (over nine years) - but that record may not be accurate since the population of Florida was rather sparce in the 1850s and 1860s (and the 1870s as well), and a hurricane could have made landfall in an unpopulated area (hence no known records of such an event).

Here are the other long intervals without a Hurricane in Florida:

October 18, 1910 to August 1, 1915 - 1,747 days
October 16, 1999 to August 13, 2004 - 1,762 days
October 12, 1987 to August 23, 1992 - 1,777 days
September 4, 1979 to November 20, 1985 - 2,269 days
October 24, 2005 to ??? (as of May 3rd - 2,383 days and counting)

A Hurricane has hit Florida in 44% of the seasons since 1851 - for an average of 11 landfalling hurricanes every 25 years. The latest ENSO climatology update through April suggests that 1951, 1968, 2009, 2006 and 1976 are the best analog years for this season. Interesting that only one of those years (1968) had a hurricane (Gladys) that hit Florida.
ED

Although the 'season' officially has a few days left, NHC has already conducted their end-of-season post analysis review and has upgraded one system to Tropical Storm status - although its probably not the upgrade that you might have anticipated:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
As part of its routine post-season review, the National Hurricane Center occasionally identifies a previously undesignated tropical or subtropical cyclone. The NHC re-analysis of 2011 has concluded that a short-lived low that passed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia from 31 August to 3 September briefly had sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical storm. With this addition, the total numbers of storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes for 2011 (so far) are 19, 7, and 3, respectively. A complete report on this system is in preparation and should be available on the NHC web page by 30 November. (from Facebook)

Checking the NHC site, I only see 6 hurricanes rather than the 7 as indicated above.

ADDED 11/28: The total for the season was indeed 7 hurricanes - 'Nate' was upgraded to a hurricane in post analysis.

The TS upgrade raises the question about another anticipated upgrade, i.e., the storm off the central Florida east coast on October 9th. This system caused quite a bit of controversy since many locations in east central Florida received tropical storm conditions during the afternoon and evening of October 9th and a very large percentage of the population in the affected areas wondered why the system had not been named by NHC. More than a few folks in the barrier island communities suffered extensive roof damage and insurance companies were quite upset with NHC - without a named system, additional hurricane deductibles could not be applied - probably one of the few 'good' results of an un-named system.

Within the meteorological community, both private and public (governmental), some members of those communities tend to exhibit an unyielding 'stubbornness' regarding their authority and forecasts. This is not a favorable attribute since, at times, it can cloud sound judgment at the expense of public safety when decision-making is based on this attribute and new data is ignored or explained away. In private conversation, NHC is often described by other meteorologists as technically excellent, highly autonomous and very unyielding (i.e. stubborn). Blogs on another site by a NWS meteorologist did indeed add fuel to this controversy, since some of the statements implied that the situation was well -handled by the current suite of products that had been issued, however, here is one of the NWS bulletins:

SOUTHERN BREVARD-INDIAN RIVER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MELBOURNE...PALM BAY...VERO BEACH
334 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

...HIGH SURF ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY...
...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT...THEN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LATE. BREEZY. SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL. LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S. EAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTY BECOMING SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH LATE. CHANCE OF RAIN 70
PERCENT.

Comments: Exactly two hours later at 5:54PM, Melbourne NWS recorded a wind gust to 54mph. A little later, Patrick AFB recorded a gust to 60mph. The current suite of products did not have the situation well in hand regardless of whether the system was tropical or non-tropical and that is not a criticism - meteorology is still a new science and those things happen. New advisories, etc., were issued but those were driven by what was already taking place. When the system passed over the near-shore buoy 41009, the wind gusts hit 58mph and the sea level pressure dropped to 999.5MB. The buoy also reported a maximum wave height of 22 feet. Later in the evening the Best Track data was changed from SS (Subtropical Storm) to LO (low pressure center) and the NHC issued a Special TWO:

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1125 PM EDT SUN OCT 9 2011

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A NON-TROPICAL GALE CENTER LOCATED NEAR CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA IS
PRODUCING VERY STRONG WINDS ALONG THE EAST COASTS OF CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM
LACK SUFFICIENT ORGANIZATION TO DESIGNATE IT AS A TROPICAL OR
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LOW CENTER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND
OVER NORTH-CENTRAL FLORIDA BY MONDAY MORNING...AND OVER THE EXTREME
NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO OR NORTH FLORIDA BY EARLY TUESDAY.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ARE
EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES TODAY AND
MONDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...
INCLUDING WATCHES OR WARNINGS...PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/CANGIALOSI


Comment: Probably a little late since the data suggests that the system had already made landfall on the south coast of Cape Canaveral with sustained winds of 65mph at surface height in a small area near the center. An Air Force 60ft tower reported wind gusts up to 81mph. A few meteorologists (including myself) felt that post-analysis would elevate this system to Subtropical Storm status, however:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
That was a fascinating system for a variety of reasons. It had a number of characteristics of named storms, and we considered adding that one also, but decided in the end that it didn't meet the technical criteria to qualify either as a tropical or subtropical cyclone. So that one is not going to be added to the list. (from Facebook)

Comment: Which raised the immediate question of 'What technical criteria?' - and generated the following response:

NOAA NWS National Hurricane Center
Here are NHC's working definitions that were applied:

Tropical Cyclone - A warm-core non-frontal synoptic-scale cyclone, originating over tropical or subtropical waters, with organized deep convection and a closed surface wind circulation ...about a well-defined center. Once formed, a tropical cyclone is maintained by the extraction of heat energy from the ocean at high temperature and heat export at the low temperatures of the upper troposphere. In this they differ from extratropical cyclones, which derive their energy from horizontal temperature contrasts in the atmosphere (baroclinic effects).

Subtropical Cyclone - A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.

The October cyclone was difficult to classify, consisting of a small area of very strong (~50 kt sustained) winds embedded within a much broader environment of low pressure that was itself producing gale/tropical-storm-force winds, at least early on. The inner system possessed some of the essential characteristics of a tropical storm: it had sustained winds in excess of 34 kt, it had a well-defined center of circulation, it had a warm core, at least in the lower troposphere, and the low center itself did not lie along any frontal boundaries, at least at the time the center moved onshore. In particular, the strength, distribution, and impacts of the winds near the center of this system were indistinguishable from many other small tropical storms.

Other attributes of the system, however, argued against its classification as a tropical storm. The system's convection near the core was intermittent and of short duration, and was considered too transient to satisfy the definition's organized deep convection requirement. The transient nature of the strong inner core circulation itself also cast doubt as to whether it could be considered of synoptic scale. The vertical extent of the cyclonic circulation was limited to below about 12,000 ft, very uncharacteristic of a tropical cyclone of this strength.

We also considered whether the system should be classified as a subtropical cyclone. There were clearly mixed characteristics of extratropical and tropical cyclones present, including the presence nearby of an upper-level cold low, and the large-scale distribution of winds and convection. However, there was enough air mass contrast associated with the system to raise doubts as to whether it was truly non-frontal. The very small radius of maximum winds and occasional convection very near the center also made the system difficult to classify as a subtropical cyclone.

Nature does not always cooperate with the classification systems designed by man. There is a continuum of cyclone types in the real atmosphere, and it is often difficult to place these systems into the small number of bins that meteorologists have created for them. The 9-10 October Florida system is certainly one of these difficult cyclones. NHC’s historical record, however, requires its members to belong to either the “tropical” or “subtropical” bins, and our view in this case is that neither applies. It is simply “something else”. (from Facebook)

Comments: It sounds like Invest 93L was a square peg that did not fit into either of NHC's firmly defined round holes so, for now, the system will not get an upgrade. Additional data could eventually change their mind, and until that happens I will still consider 2011 as a season with 20 storms. It took many years, but re-examining data finally moved 'Andrew' into the Cat V bin. Small tropical systems with a diameter of only 10 to 12 miles have been classified in the past, so the 'synoptic scale' argument is defeated by prior examples.

Conclusion: Since NHC readily admits that different types of 'something else' cyclones do exist and since we have categorized just about everything else from a dust devil to a super typhoon, why doesn't NOAA or the WMO designate new 'bins' for them? Many years ago there was no Subtropical Storm bin - new discovery demands flexibility in scientific thinking that will reduce the risk of a failure to communicate responsibly.
ED

Hurricane Irene has pulled in some dry air from the west which has weakened the inner core of the storm - a process that has been ongoing throughout today. As a result Irene has weakened to a Category I Hurricane with sustained winds of 90mph (my estimation based on data from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft) - which is good news for those in her path. Don't misinterpret that news - Irene is still a hurricane and even a Category I hurricane can cause damage and considerable discomfort. Widespread power outages and flooding rains are common with a Cat I hurricane. Irene is a slow moving storm and folks in the north often expect a hurricane to fly through their area in a couple of hours - but thats not going to happen with this hurricane until it gets into southern Maine. Prepare yourself for long-duration high winds - not as strong as originally anticipated, but lasting quite a bit longer given the large size of this hurricane. The good news is that its not going to be 12 hours of 95mph winds - the bad news is that its still going to be 12 hours of 65mph winds (or more in the North Carolina and Maryland coastal areas). With lower wind speeds as Irene heads north northeast and eventually northeast from New Jersey into eastern Maine (and eventually into Labrador late Monday evening) the coastal storm surge will not be as strong, but wave heights will be at 15 to 20 feet in some coastal areas near the core of the hurricane.

My expectations for the future track of Irene are about 60 miles to the east of the current NHC guidance. Irene should brush the Outer Banks of North Carolina around Noon on Saturday with winds of 85mph gusting to 100mph. Note that although the storm is huge, the hurricane core is small so the area of highest winds will be confined to a small area near the center. Hurricane Irene should move north northeastward remaining offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast and make landfall on central or eastern Long Island, New York, around Noon on Sunday as a Category I Hurricane with sustained winds near the center of 75mph gusting to 90mph.

Providence, Rhode Island, early Sunday afternoon: 70mph gusting to 85mph
Haverhill, Massachusetts, late Sunday afternoon: 60mph gusting to 75mph
Portland, Maine, early Sunday evening: 60mph gusting to 75mph
Houlton, Maine, after Midnight Monday morning: 55mph gusting to 65mph

Except for those folks in New England, the time for storm planning and preparation is just about over and its time to stay safe.
ED

The future track of Hurricane Irene is firming up with only minor changes since last night. The good news, if there is such a thing with a hurricane, is that the intensity remains at Category II with sustained winds near the center of 100mph. One item that the Hurricane Center may have overlooked is that in about 9 hours Irene will be crossing the Gulf Stream, and with higher sea surface temperatures some intensification could still occur. Landfall has shifted slightly east and should be near Ocracoke, North Carolina, around 10AM Saturday morning with sustained winds of 100-105mph gusting to 125mph.

The slight eastward track adjustment would be better news for North Carolina but not so good for everybody else along the track. Irene is now expected to remain just offshore Virginia, Maryland and Delaware Saturday evening with sustained winds of 90mph and just off the New Jersey coast Sunday morning. Irene should clip western Long Island and hit shore again near Norwalk, Connecticut, early Sunday afternoon with sustained winds of 80mph gusting to 95mph. Looks like Irene will pass near or over Westfield, Massachusetts, early Sunday evening (5-6PM) - still as a hurricane with winds of 75mph gusting to 90mph. In the past 24 hours, the Hurricane Center track has not deviated all that much from the Westfield scenario. Although Irene is a little weaker than yesterday's forecast, the offshore track means that the winds will not decrease as much as the hurricane moves northward. Cooler sea temperatures and southwesterly windshear aloft are the prime factors that will slowly diminish the winds.

Irene should continue north northeast and weaken to a strong tropical storm as it moves near Northampton, Amherst, Athol, and Jaffrey, New Hampshire, Sunday evening. Irene will eventually end up in extreme northern Maine by Monday morning with winds still in the 55-60mph range.
ED

At 5PM EDT, Hurricane Irene was located near Abaco Island, Bahamas, at 27.0N 77.3W (about 575 miles south of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina) moving to the north northwest at 14mph with sustained winds near the center of 115mph gusting to 135mph (Category III). Central pressure was down to 950MB (28.05"). Last night the turn to the north northwest did not occur as soon as anticipated and the forecast track has been adjusted westward. Irene is now expected to pass about 175 miles to the east northeast of Melbourne around 1AM Friday morning as a Category III Hurricane with sustained winds near the center of 125mph (still a Category III).

Winds on the east central Florida Barrier Islands out of the North at 35-45mph with a few gusts to 50mph later this evening. Winds along the east central Florida I-95 corridor out of the north at 30-40mph with a few gusts to 45mph. Rain squalls from the outer bands of Hurricane Irene will continue to move ashore this evening and tonight. Extensive damage has been reported from several of the islands in the Bahamas including Long Island, Eleuthera and Abaco.

Irene is now expected to turn more to the north and eventually north northeast, with landfall in eastern North Carolina near Morehead City as a strong Cat II Hurricane Saturday afternoon and move north northeast right along the coast of Delaware Sunday morning as a strong Category I Hurricane and move just inland of the New Jersey coast as a Category I Hurricane Sunday afternoon. Irene will continue north northeastward passing just west of New York City by late afternoon / early evening on Sunday with sustained winds of 75mph and move north along the New York / Massachusetts border Sunday evening - as a strong Tropical Storm with sustained winds of 60mph gusting to 75mph. Irene continues into northern Vermont Monday morning - still a Tropical Storm. The westward adjusted track will mean a stronger storm from North Carolina to New Jersey and a slightly weaker storm in New England - especially eastern New England.

Adjust the track of Hurricane Gloria (September, 1985) a little to the west and you'll have a good idea of what to expect from Hurricane Irene.

Unisys - Hurricane Gloria Track - September, 1985

Continue to monitor the northward progress of Hurricane Irene for any additional changes and follow the advice of your local Emergency Management officials.
ED