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| #10005 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:53 AM 25.Sep.2004) TCDAT3 TROPICAL STORM LISA DISCUSSION NUMBER 24 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SAT SEP 25 2004 SHORTWAVE AND ENHANCED BD CURVE INFRARED IMAGERY DEPICT A STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE LOW CENTER AND A DEVELOPING BAND WRAPPING IN FROM THE EAST. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KT FROM ALL AGENCIES. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KT. THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF AN UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO PRODUCE 10 TO 20 KT OF SHEAR OVER LISA. HOWEVER...THIS NORTHERLY SHEAR IS STILL FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING THROUGH 72 HOURS THEN LEVELS OFF JUST BELOW HURRICANE STRENGTH AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO ENCOUNTER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND FOLLOWS THE SHIPS. INITIAL MOTION IS 315/8 KT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GFS...THE AVAILABLE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE INDICATING EITHER A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST BY DAY 4. THIS MOTION IS PROVIDED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND A MID-UPPER TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC. THIS IS THE SAME RIDGE THAT IS CURRENTLY STEERING HURRICANE JEANNE. THE GFS REMAINS IN THE WEAKNESS AFTER 96 HOURS WITH A TURN TO THE NORTH. THE UKMET...ON THE OTHER HAND...REFLECTS A CONSIDERABLY STRONGER RIDGE BEYOND 72 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST BEYOND 72 HOURS AND IS BASED OFF OF A CONSENSUS OF ALL THE MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET. FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/0900Z 15.2N 45.2W 35 KT 12HR VT 25/1800Z 16.2N 46.2W 40 KT 24HR VT 26/0600Z 17.5N 47.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 26/1800Z 19.0N 48.0W 50 KT 48HR VT 27/0600Z 20.5N 48.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 28/0600Z 24.0N 50.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 29/0600Z 27.0N 51.0W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/0600Z 29.5N 51.5W 60 KT |
