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| #1001530 (Received by flhurricane at: 11:06 PM 17.May.2020) TCPAT1 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Arthur Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL012020 1100 PM EDT Sun May 17 2020 ...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS THAT ARTHUR HAS CHANGED LITTLE AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...32.4N 76.9W ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM SSW OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Surf City to Duck NC * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. For storm information specific to your area, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM EDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Arthur was located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near latitude 32.4 North, longitude 76.9 West. Arthur is moving toward the north-northeast near 10 mph (17 km/h). A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is forecast to occur on Monday. A turn toward the east is expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Arthur will remain well offshore of the coasts of Georgia and South Carolina overnight, and then move near or just east of the coast of North Carolina on Monday. Arthur is forecast to turn away from the east coast of the United States Monday night and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Arthur is likely to lose tropical characteristics Tuesday night and Wednesday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 90 miles (150 km) from the center. The minimum central pressure measured by the reconnaissance aircraft is 1003 mb (29.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the Tropical Storm Warning area on Monday. RAINFALL: Arthur is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 1 to 3 inches over coastal North Carolina Sunday night and Monday, with isolated maximum amounts of 5 inches. SURF: Swells generated by Arthur are affecting portions of the southeast U.S. coast and are expected to spread northward along the U.S. mid-Atlantic coast during the next day or two. These swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM EDT. Next complete advisory at 500 AM EDT. $$ Forecaster Stewart |
