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| #1003365 (Received by flhurricane at: 10:46 PM 02.Jun.2020) TCDAT3 Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 1000 PM CDT Tue Jun 02 2020 Cristobal has become a little better organized this evening. There has there has been an increase in convective banding near and to the east of the center in both satellite and radar imagery. An Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft that investigated the storm this evening found peak 925-mb flight-level winds of 52 kt and peak SFMR winds of 45-47 kt. An automated Mexican weather station on an elevated offshore platform has measured slightly stronger winds than the SFMR, but a blend of these data support an initial intensity of 45 kt. The aircraft reported a minimum pressure of 996 mb on its final pass through the center. Recent aircraft and satellite fixes show that Cristobal has been meandering for much of the day, with perhaps a south or southeast drift evident. The storm is expected to move slowly southward or southeastward as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre centered over eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore over the southern Bay of Campeche coast later tonight or on Wednesday. After landfall, Cristobal is forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early Thursday. After that time, increasing southerly flow should allow the storm to begin moving northward over the central and northern Gulf of Mexico by the weekend. There has been a slight eastward adjustment in the early portion of the track forecast due to a slightly more eastward initial position, but after 36 h very little change to the previous forecast was required. The new NHC track forecast is again near the various consensus aids and is a blend of the GFS and ECMWF models. Although there is less spread in the track guidance this cycle, there is still a fair amount of uncertainty in the track forecast at 72 h and beyond due to the expected land interaction within the next day or so, and a potential for center reformations as the system re-organizes in 2-3 days. Some additional strengthening is possible overnight before Cristobal reaches the coast of Mexico. Weakening is likely on Wednesday and Wednesday night while the circulation encounters land. Once the system moves over the Gulf of Mexico, environmental conditions are expected to support re-intensification. The NHC intensity forecast is closest to the HWRF model and is a bit less aggressive than the statistical guidance or the HFIP-corrected consensus model since there is uncertainly regarding structure of the system after it interacts with land. Key Messages: 1. Deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador, and Cristobal is expected to bring additional heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico, Guatemala, Honduras, and El Salvador, which could cause life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides. Refer to products from your national meteorological service for more information. 2. Tropical storm conditions will continue along the coast of Mexico where a tropical storm warning is in effect. 3. Cristobal is forecast to begin moving northward across the Gulf of Mexico on Friday, and there is a risk of storm surge, rainfall, and wind impacts this weekend along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle. While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0300Z 19.1N 92.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 03/1200Z 18.7N 92.1W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 04/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 36H 04/1200Z 18.3N 91.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 05/0000Z 18.8N 91.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 60H 05/1200Z 19.6N 91.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER 72H 06/0000Z 21.2N 91.1W 40 KT 45 MPH...OVER WATER 96H 07/0000Z 25.0N 91.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...OVER WATER 120H 08/0000Z 29.0N 91.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...OVER WATER $$ Forecaster Brown |
