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| #1003464 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:51 AM 04.Jun.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number 11 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.9N 91.3W ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today. Interests there and along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 91.3 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 km/h), and this motion should continue this morning. A turn toward the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent northward motion should occur through Saturday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, and over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression during the next several hours. Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the center. The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan... Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within portions of the warning area. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT. Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Beven |
