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| #1003537 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 PM 04.Jun.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 PM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND LIFE-THREATENING FLOODING... ...EXPECTED TO MOVE BACK INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO TOMORROW NIGHT... SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.5N 90.8W ABOUT 165 MI...270 KM S OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 110 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch may be required for a portion of the area tonight or Friday. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located near latitude 17.5 North, longitude 90.8 West. The depression is moving toward the east-southeast near 3 mph (6 km/h). A turn toward the east and northeast is expected tonight, and a subsequent generally northward motion should occur through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over extreme northwestern Guatemala and eastern Mexico tonight and Friday. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico late Friday, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional weakening is possible overnight. Re-intensification is expected to begin late Friday. The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 2 to 4 inches. Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 5 to 10 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
