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| #1003595 (Received by flhurricane at: 4:45 AM 05.Jun.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Depression Cristobal Advisory Number 15 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 400 AM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 ...CRISTOBAL CONTINUES TO BRING HEAVY RAINS AND FLOODING TO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA... SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.8N 90.1W ABOUT 80 MI...130 KM SSE OF CAMPECHE MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect. Interests along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of Cristobal. A tropical storm watch and a storm surge watch will likely be required for a portion of the area later today. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Cristobal was located inland near latitude 18.8 North, longitude 90.1 West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph (11 km/h). A turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected later today, and a general northward motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center will move over the Yucatan peninsula through the day today. The center is forecast to move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico by tonight, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and approach the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected while the depression is located over land. Gradual strengthening is forecast to begin once the system moves over the southern Gulf of Mexico. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Gusty conditions are possible today along the eastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations through Saturday: Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco, Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 1 to 3 inches. Southern Guatemala and coastal portions of Chiapas...Additional 8 to 12 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. El Salvador...Additional 4 to 8 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 2 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. Heavy rainfall will spread into portions of the Gulf Coast, from east Texas to Florida, this weekend into early next week, with areas of flash flooding possible. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT. $$ Forecaster Zelinsky |
