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| #1003647 (Received by flhurricane at: 1:51 PM 05.Jun.2020) TCPAT3 BULLETIN Tropical Storm Cristobal Intermediate Advisory Number 16A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032020 100 PM CDT Fri Jun 05 2020 ...CRISTOBAL STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM... SUMMARY OF 100 PM CDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.5N 89.8W ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSE OF MERIDA MEXICO ABOUT 595 MI...960 KM S OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The government of Mexico has changed the Tropical Storm Watch to a Tropical Storm Warning for the Yucatan Peninsula from Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Indian Pass to Arepika Florida * Grand Isle Louisiana to Ocean Springs Mississippi * Lake Borgne A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for * Punta Herrero to Rio Lagartos Mexico A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Intracoastal City Louisiana to the Alabama/Florida border * Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 6 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. Tropical storm conditions in the watch area in Mexico could occur through this afternoon. For storm information specific to your area in the United States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 100 PM CDT (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was located near latitude 20.5 North, longitude 89.8 West. The storm is moving toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center will move back over the southern Gulf of Mexico this evening, over the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday, and be near the northern Gulf of Mexico coast Sunday evening. Satellite-derived wind data and surface observations indicate that Cristobal`s maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 240 miles (390 km) from the center. An elevated observing site from Isla Perez, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, recently reported sustained winds of 43 mph (69 km/h) and a gust to 53 mph (85 km/h). The estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb (29.53 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Aripeka to Marco Island including Tampa Bay...1-3 ft Grand Isle to Ocean Springs including Lake Borgne...2-4 ft Indian Pass to Aripeka...2-4 ft Ocean Springs to Indian Pass including Mobile Bay and Pensacola Bay...1-3 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of onshore winds and will likely extend along the coast well to the east of the center. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected today within the Tropical Storm Warning area along the Yucatan Peninsula. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the Tropical Storm Watch area along the northern Gulf coast beginning early Sunday. RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain accumulations: Through Wednesday morning, for portions of the eastern and central Gulf Coast and the lower Mississippi Valley, rainfall accumulations of 4 to 8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches, are forecast. Isolated significant river flooding is possible along the central Gulf Coast. Farther north across the Mid-Mississippi Valley, rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with local amounts to 6 inches, are expected. Rises along smaller-order streams are possible across the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This degree of rainfall is expected to lead to flash flooding. Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, and Yucatan...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches. Belize and the Mexican states of Tabasco and Oaxaca...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm totals of 12 inches. Southern Guatemala, coastal portions of Chiapas, and El Salvador...Additional 4 to 6 inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th. Southern parts of Honduras...Additional 3 to 4 inches, isolated 8 inches. Rainfall across Southeast Mexico and northern Central America would continue the risk of life-threatening flash floods and mudslides. SURF: Swells generated by Cristobal will affect portions of the northern and eastern Gulf coast during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT. $$ Forecaster Pasch |
